Natural Gas Price Forecast: Downside Pressure Faces Key Resistance
By Bruce Powers | Updated: March 14, 2026
Market Overview
Natural gas is currently experiencing downward pressure following the breach of a long-term uptrend line on February 17. The price reached a four-day high of $3.32 before retreating to a low of $3.11, establishing a bearish outside day. This situation indicates that immediate support levels are at the 10-day moving average of $3.08 and the 20-day average at $3.03.
Technical Analysis
A small higher swing low at $2.96 is a critical structural level within a short-term bullish trend that emerged after the $2.76 trend low from February. Recent bullish momentum was confirmed by the 10-day moving average crossing above the 20-day average; however, prices continue to struggle below the broken uptrend line, reinforcing the noted downside pressure.
Resistance and Support Levels
On Monday, a bullish spike encountered resistance at $3.49, leading to a price drop back to the day's lower range, indicating a failure to maintain upward momentum. The 50-day moving average is currently at $3.50, which will soon fall below Monday's high, suggesting a decrease in the next resistance zone. For a bullish outlook, natural gas must surpass Friday's high of $3.32 to test resistance at the 50-day average or near Monday's high.
Potential for a Rally
Despite the prevailing downward pressure, there is a possibility for a rally back into a larger rising trend channel before a continuation of the bearish trend below $2.76. Key resistance levels to monitor include the 200-day moving average at $3.42 and a lower swing high at $3.49. A breakthrough above this week’s high could trigger a continuation of the bounce, while a rally above $3.49 would indicate a bullish trend reversal.
Upside Targets
If a bullish reversal occurs, the next upside target zone is identified between $4.26 and $4.59. This zone includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downswing at $4.56, along with the center line of a large trend channel, which may provide additional resistance.