Market Wrap - April 3, 2026
Overview
The oil market is currently the focal point for investors as they prepare for the upcoming week in global equities. The US markets are closed today due to the Easter holidays, and European markets are also shut. Sentiment in Wall Street index futures is mixed.
Asian Market Performance
Asian equities ended the week on a positive note despite ongoing market volatility. The sentiment improved following reports indicating that trade may soon resume through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely blocked since the onset of the conflict. The rebound in Asia was supported by news that Iran is collaborating with Oman to oversee commerce along this strategic shipping route.
However, trading activity remained limited as many key Asian markets were closed for holidays, and major European exchanges were also shut. US Treasury futures in Asia traded close to flat, while the cash market remained closed until the US session. The US dollar exhibited mixed performance against G10 currencies.
Oil Market Dynamics
The oil market is under significant geopolitical pressure, with prices surging above $110 per barrel. This increase follows new threats from Donald Trump against Iranian infrastructure, aimed at intensifying pressure on Tehran during negotiations. WTI crude rose by 11%, while the global Brent benchmark settled near $109 per barrel.
Iran has conducted additional attacks targeting sites in Gulf states, further escalating tensions regarding the security of energy transport and maritime trade. Notably, a container ship with French ownership recently passed through the Strait of Hormuz, marking a significant event as it is likely the first recorded transit by a Western Europe-linked vessel since the conflict began.
US Macro Data
The latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March showed an increase of 178,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the forecast of 65,000 and rebounding from a previous decline of 92,000. Key figures include:
- Average Earnings (YoY): 3.5% (forecast: 3.7%)
- Average Earnings (MoM): 0.2% (forecast: 0.3%)
- Government Payrolls: -8K
- Private Payrolls: +186K (forecast: 78K)
- Manufacturing Payrolls: +15K (forecast: -5K)
- Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.9% (forecast: 62%)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (forecast: 4.4%)
- Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 (forecast: 34.3)
Revisions indicated that January payrolls were revised up by 34,000, while February was revised down by 41,000. Following the release of this data, Nasdaq 100 futures saw gains, alleviating concerns about a potential US economic slowdown. However, the strong labor market data may also lead to cautious expectations regarding future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The full market reaction is anticipated once US markets reopen next week.