Market Summary - May 15, 2026

Key Takeaways

• President Trump's diplomatic visit to China has concluded without significant progress.
• Investors are reacting to the latest inflation figures, with US bond yields reaching a yearly high.
• Most major stock market indices closed in the red.
• The microprocessor sector is particularly affected, leading the declines.
• The US dollar remains strong, topping the G10 currency dashboard.

Market Analysis

The recent volatility in the markets can be attributed to President Trump's visit to China, which did not yield substantial advancements on critical issues such as rare earth metal imports and microprocessor exports. This lack of progress has heightened market concerns regarding inflation and its potential impact on Federal Reserve policies.

Macro Data

Today's release of US industrial production data for April showed an unexpected increase of 0.7%. However, the market's focus remains on inflation data, with both Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures exceeding expectations. This has led to increased speculation about potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, with a 60% implied probability of a rate increase before the year's end.

Stock Indices Performance

Most major indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite both down by 0.8%. Significant losses were observed in international markets, including:

• Korean KOSPI: -6.1%
• German DAX: -2.2%
• French CAC40: -1.6%
• Polish WIG20: -2.4%

Sector Performance

The microprocessor sector faced notable declines, with major companies reporting losses:

• ARM Holdings: -7.1%
• Intel Corp: -6.6%
• NVIDIA Corp: -2.9%

Currency Market

The US dollar has strengthened amidst geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, gaining over 1.3% against the euro this week. Other currencies, particularly those vulnerable to geopolitical instability, have weakened, including:

• Brazilian real, affected by political developments.
• Chilean peso, declining due to lower copper prices.
• Hungarian forint, South African rand, and Thai baht, all impacted by concerns over the Strait of Hormuz.

Commodities

US Treasury bond yields have risen to their highest level in a year, negatively impacting precious metals:

• Gold: -2%
• Silver: -7.8%
• Copper: -1.6%

Brent crude oil prices are nearing $110, with LNG prices exceeding €50 per MWh on the Dutch TTF exchange.

Cryptocurrency Market

Market sentiment has turned negative, leading to declines in major cryptocurrencies:

• Bitcoin: -2.4%, falling below the $80,000 mark.
• Ethereum: -3%