GBPUSD Exchange Rate Waits for UK Jobs Numbers
By Martin Lam
Overview
The GBPUSD exchange rate is poised for movement as the UK prepares to release its jobs numbers on Tuesday. The current unemployment rate remains elevated, which could impact the currency's performance.
Current Market Conditions
The GBP/USD has encountered resistance around the 1.3700 mark, with support identified at 1.3500 should the market experience any downturns. The upcoming jobs report is expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.1%, while average earnings growth is projected to decline from 3.5% to 3.2%.
Economic Context
Recent economic data indicates that the UK economy struggled in the final quarter of 2025, with GDP growth stagnating at 0.1%, matching the previous quarter's performance. This figure fell short of economists' expectations, which had forecasted a growth of 0.2%.
Despite political instability, including the resignation of senior allies from Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government, the British pound has shown resilience.
Future Employment Trends
Looking ahead, research suggests that the UK could see a loss of up to 3 million jobs in lower-skilled sectors such as sales, customer service, and administration by 2035. This trend is attributed to the rapid advancement of AI capabilities, outsourcing, and shifts in demand due to the pandemic.
Notably, employment in sales and customer service roles has decreased by over 10% since 2021, while jobs in plant and machine operation have declined by 5%.
Conclusion
The upcoming jobs report will be crucial for the GBPUSD exchange rate, as it may provide insights into the health of the UK labor market amidst ongoing economic challenges and technological changes.