Apple Earnings Preview: Can iPhone Growth and the Duo Foldable Justify AAPL’s Valuation?
Author: Daniel Carter
Date: October 29, 2026
Key Takeaways
- Apple is set to release its fiscal fourth-quarter results on November 2, 2026.
- Wall Street anticipates revenue of approximately $113.4 billion and earnings per share between $1.98 and $1.99.
- Strong demand for iPhones could boost quarterly iPhone revenue to around $56.4 billion.
- The iPhone Duo, launched after the quarter ended, makes holiday-quarter guidance crucial.
- Apple's valuation stands at roughly 35 times forward earnings, indicating limited room for weak guidance.
Upcoming Earnings Report
Apple will announce its fiscal fourth-quarter results on November 2, 2026, after the market closes, with an earnings call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. Analysts expect a revenue increase of about 10.7% year-over-year, reaching $113.4 billion, and earnings per share to rise from $1.85 to approximately $1.99.
Current Market Expectations
| Metric | Q4 2026 Forecast | Q4 2025 Result | Expected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $113.4 billion | $102.5 billion | 10.7% |
| Earnings per share | $1.99 | $1.85 | 7.6% |
| iPhone revenue | $56.4 billion | Not disclosed | — |
| Services revenue | $31.7 billion | Not disclosed | — |
iPhone Growth as a Key Driver
The iPhone remains the primary driver of Apple's earnings. The company anticipates mid-teens growth in iPhone revenue, despite challenges such as foreign-exchange pressures and supply constraints. Analysts estimate iPhone revenue could reach approximately $56.4 billion for the September quarter, following a strong fiscal third quarter where iPhone sales rose 22% to $54.25 billion.
Impact of the iPhone Duo
Apple's recently launched iPhone Duo, featuring a foldable design, will not impact the fiscal fourth-quarter results as it was released after the reporting period. Analysts expect the Duo to contribute significantly to the holiday quarter, with total revenue projections around $153 billion, including $88.9 billion from iPhones. The Duo's premium pricing could elevate Apple's average selling price, although its initial sales volume may be modest.
Services and AI as Margin Support
Apple's Services segment is projected to generate approximately $31.7 billion, benefiting from offerings like iCloud and Apple Pay. This division boasts a gross margin exceeding 75%, which is crucial as hardware costs rise. The previous quarter saw Services revenue of $30.74 billion, marking a 12% year-over-year increase.
Valuation Considerations
Apple's stock has appreciated about 26.5% in 2026, pushing its market value above $5 trillion. Currently, shares trade at approximately 35 times forward earnings, a premium compared to the broader technology sector's 19 times. This valuation reflects expectations for sustained iPhone growth and successful entry into the foldable market, but it also poses risks if holiday forecasts fall short.
Conclusion
For Apple to justify its premium valuation, it must not only meet earnings expectations but also provide strong holiday guidance and demonstrate robust demand for the iPhone Duo. Any disappointment in these areas could lead to downward pressure on AAPL stock, despite potentially strong fourth-quarter earnings.