Key Highlights
- Surge in realized losses indicates potential market bottom.
- US XRP-spot ETFs see $1.84M inflows, despite market volatility.
- Medium-term price target for XRP set at $2.5.
Current Market Situation
As of February 22, 2026, XRP has experienced significant volatility, dropping below $1.40 as retail investors reacted to Bitcoin's decline towards its February low of $60,000. The on-chain data indicates a surge in realized losses, which historically correlates with market bottoms.
On-Chain Data Insights
Market intelligence platform Santiment reported the largest spike in on-chain realized losses for XRP since 2022. This trend typically signals fear among investors, leading to panic selling. However, such spikes can also indicate potential market reversals, as extreme fear often precedes price recoveries.
ETF Demand and Legislative Support
Despite the bearish sentiment, there is a resilient demand for US XRP-spot ETFs, which underscores institutional interest in XRP. The ongoing progress of the Market Structure Bill is crucial, as it could enhance XRP's utility and market position.
Price Forecasts
Short-term (1-4 weeks): $1.0
Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5
Long-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0
Risks to the Outlook
Several factors could negatively impact XRP's price, including geopolitical tensions, economic data affecting Fed rate expectations, and potential delays in the Market Structure Bill. Additionally, fluctuations in ETF flows could also influence market sentiment.
Technical Analysis
XRP closed at $1.3933, showing a bearish trend as it remains below key moving averages. Key levels to watch include support at $1.0 and resistance at $1.5. A breakout above $1.5 could signal a bullish reversal.
Conclusion
Looking ahead, XRP's price will be influenced by a combination of geopolitical developments, regulatory progress, and market sentiment. The potential for a bullish medium-term outlook remains, contingent on favorable legislative outcomes and sustained ETF inflows.