Summary of Forex Article: US Dollar Churns on Tariff Uncertainty

Author: John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy

Date: February 23, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the recent developments surrounding the US dollar in light of the US Supreme Court's ruling against the legality of many of former President Trump's tariffs. This ruling has significant implications for US fiscal policy and trade relations, as it marks a pivotal moment in Trump's ongoing trade strategy.

Key Developments

• The US Supreme Court ruled against the legality of Trump's tariffs based on the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
• This ruling initially caused a slight decline in the US dollar, as it raised concerns about fiscal stability and future revenue from tariffs.
• In response, Trump announced new temporary tariffs under Section 122, starting at 10% and revised to 15%, which are set to last for 150 days.
• Despite the ruling, Trump indicated that he retains significant powers to block imports or impose quotas, albeit not to charge tariffs.

Market Reactions

Following the Supreme Court's decision, the US dollar experienced a brief decline but found support and rallied during the Asian and European trading sessions. The article notes that the dollar's recovery is tied to risk sentiment in the market.

Upcoming Events

Trump is scheduled to deliver his first State of the Union address of his second term, where he is expected to emphasize protectionist policies and industrial initiatives, potentially addressing foreign relations, particularly with Iran.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair has shown volatility, with a recent break below the 1.1766 pivot lows leading to a temporary low of 1.1742. Following the Supreme Court ruling, the pair rallied to 1.1830 but faced downward pressure again due to Trump's new tariff announcements. The article highlights the importance of the 1.1850 level for maintaining an uptrend, with a potential bearish outlook if the pair closes below 1.1750.

Other Currency Insights

The article also touches on the Japanese Yen (JPY), which is currently experiencing sideways movement after a recent sell-off. Additionally, silver has shown strong upward momentum in recent sessions.

Conclusion

The article concludes by emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the US dollar and the broader implications of Trump's trade policies. The market is closely watching for further developments and technical signals that could influence currency trends in the near future.