Bitcoin Market Analysis: 2026 Outlook
By Dr. Arnout Ter Schure
Published: January 5, 2026
Current Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a challenging year in 2025, closing lower. However, historical patterns suggest that BTC has never recorded two consecutive down years. Following a positive performance in 2024, the expectation is for a bullish trend from 2026 to potentially 2028. January 2026 has started strong, with Bitcoin gaining 7.6% year-to-date.
Price Levels and Predictions
For Bitcoin to maintain a bullish outlook, it must reclaim the resistance level of $94,617, which was the high on December 9, 2025. Achieving this level could lead to a five-wave impulse move targeting approximately $110,000. However, there is a possibility of a lower low near the long-term support range of $69,000 to $73,000 before any significant upward movement.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has recently reclaimed its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating a positive trend. It has also moved above its 10-day and 20-day SMAs for the first time since October 2025. The critical resistance level remains at $94,617, and if Bitcoin can break above this, it may signal the start of a new bullish phase.
Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below key support levels of $91,483, $90,327, $88,410, $86,704, and $84,424, the likelihood of a drop to the low to mid $70,000s increases significantly.
Long-Term Perspective
While short-term fluctuations are common in financial markets, the long-term trend for Bitcoin remains bullish, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. Investors are advised to align their trading strategies with their time frames, avoiding the management of long-term investments based on short-term market noise.