Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bearish Trend Targets Lower Support Levels
Author: Bruce Powers
Published: July 10, 2026
Overview
The article discusses the current state of the natural gas market, highlighting a bearish trend that has emerged following a significant price decline. Natural gas is testing key support levels after breaking through established trend lines, indicating that unless buyers can reclaim important resistance levels, the bearish momentum is likely to continue.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Natural gas prices approached a critical support zone near $2.86, which coincides with a higher swing low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of a previous advance. The session's low was recorded at $2.87, suggesting some signs of support and an intraday bounce. However, the price has broken below the 20-week moving average, which has served as a dynamic support level for the past five weeks, confirming a bearish outlook on the weekly timeframe.
Market Dynamics
The article notes that the week is concluding with the lowest weekly closing price in seven weeks, indicating persistent selling pressure. Although support has emerged near the downside target zone, the overall market structure remains favorable for sellers unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.
Bearish Structure Confirmation
This week's price decline has established a lower swing high at $3.40, reinforcing a bearish structure characterized by lower swing highs and lower swing lows since the peak of $7.44 in January. The article emphasizes that any near-term rallies are likely to encounter selling pressure, potentially leading to further declines.
Former Support Becomes Resistance
The article highlights that previous support levels have now become resistance. The 200-day moving average and a long-term rising trendline, which were once support, have failed to provide the necessary backing during recent price recoveries. This shift further solidifies the bearish technical outlook.
Future Price Targets
Looking ahead, the article identifies potential lower targets, including the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.69 and a trend low near $2.50. If a counter-trend rally occurs, key resistance zones to watch include the prior swing low at $3.02, the 50-day moving average at $3.07, and an interim higher swing low at $3.12. Until these resistance levels are reclaimed, the support test near $2.86 remains vulnerable to further downside movement.
Conclusion
The analysis provided by Bruce Powers indicates a cautious outlook for natural gas prices, with a strong emphasis on the bearish trend and the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels in the coming weeks.