Solana Price Outlook: A 50% SOL Crash Setup is Unfolding in August
Author: Yashu Gola
Published: August 3, 2026
Key Points
- SOL’s weekly double-top breakdown projects a downside target near $36, roughly 50% below its August 3 price.
- SOL remains below all major weekly EMAs, while an RSI near 38 leaves room for further selling.
- Losing the $60–$64 support zone could expose $54, $42, and eventually $36, while reclaiming $95 would weaken the setup.
Overview
Solana’s SOL token is at risk of a significant decline, potentially falling by nearly 50% in August due to a large double-top breakdown evident on its weekly chart. This bearish pattern indicates a reversal in price momentum, suggesting that SOL could drop to around $36.
Double Top Breakdown
The double-top pattern formed when SOL created two peaks near the $240–$252 range between late 2024 and 2025. This pattern is characterized by two rallies to a similar resistance level that fail to break higher, confirmed when the price falls below the support level, known as the neckline, which for SOL was around $95.
After falling below this neckline, SOL's price action has indicated a breakdown phase, with a recent rebound stalling near $95, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Current Price Action
As of August 3, SOL was trading near $72. The measured move from the double-top pattern suggests a target of approximately $36, indicating a potential 50% decline from current levels. The token is also trading below its key weekly exponential moving averages (EMAs), with the 20-week EMA around $82 and the 50, 100, and 200-week EMAs clustered between $106 and $121.
The weekly relative strength index (RSI) is at 38, indicating that there is still room for further declines before reaching oversold conditions.
Support and Resistance Levels
A breakdown below the $60–$64 support zone could lead to further declines, exposing $54 initially, followed by $42, and ultimately the target of $36. Conversely, reclaiming the $82–$95 region would weaken the immediate bearish scenario.
Macro Risks
The bearish setup for SOL is compounded by an uncertain macroeconomic environment. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July, with some policymakers advocating for a rate hike. Elevated inflation, partly due to rising energy costs, keeps the possibility of tighter monetary policy alive, which typically weighs on volatile assets like cryptocurrencies.
Additionally, geopolitical factors, such as the U.S. and Japan's efforts to strengthen the yen, could lead to an unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, forcing leveraged investors to reduce their exposure to risk assets like SOL.
Recent declines in oil prices, following a delay in U.S. military action against Iran, could also revive inflation fears, further reinforcing SOL’s technical breakdown.
Conclusion
In summary, Solana's SOL token is facing significant downward pressure due to a double-top reversal pattern, with potential targets indicating a 50% decline. The combination of technical indicators and macroeconomic risks suggests that traders should remain cautious and monitor key support and resistance levels closely.