Market Summary: July 6-9, 2025

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: July 9, 2025

Key Highlights

• President Trump extended the tariff deadline to August 1, causing cautious positioning across various markets.
• Copper prices surged by 12% due to a 50% import tariff, raising inflation concerns in construction and electric vehicle sectors.
• 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.394%, reflecting market fears of tariff-induced inflation.

Market Reactions

Equities

The week was characterized by modest declines in major indices:

• S&P 500: -0.8% on Monday, -0.1% on Tuesday
• Dow Jones: -0.9% on Monday, -0.4% on Tuesday
• Nasdaq: -0.9% on Monday, flat on Tuesday
• Russell 2000: +0.7% on Tuesday, outperforming large caps.

Winners included copper miners and domestic-focused small caps, while manufacturing and trade-exposed sectors faced pressure.

Bonds

Bond yields increased due to inflation fears, with the 10-year yield climbing significantly. This unusual behavior saw bonds sold off alongside equities, contrary to typical safe-haven dynamics.

Copper

Copper emerged as the standout performer, driven by supply disruption fears due to the U.S. importing about 50% of its copper. The tariff announcement led to immediate inflationary pressures in related sectors.

Gold

Gold prices consolidated within a range of $3,310 to $3,348, failing to break out despite ongoing inflation discussions. Rising yields added headwinds to gold's performance.

Crude Oil

WTI crude oil prices fluctuated between $68 and $75, influenced by tariff-related demand concerns and geopolitical factors. Market positioning remained cautious.

Foreign Exchange

The U.S. dollar showed short-term strength against risk currencies, although it has declined 8-9% year-to-date. The tariff extension reduced immediate safe-haven demand for the dollar.

Federal Reserve Outlook

Market expectations for a rate cut in September decreased to 70% probability, as inflation concerns overshadowed previous aggressive rate-cut hopes. The upcoming Fed minutes are anticipated to be a pivotal event for market direction.

Conclusion

The period from July 6 to 9 was marked by Trump's trade escalation, but markets demonstrated adaptability rather than panic. The August 1 deadline offers a temporary reprieve while maintaining headline risk. Traders are cautiously optimistic, with a focus on sector-specific opportunities as they await further developments.