Commonwealth Bank of Australia HY 2026 Earnings Summary

Author: Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst

Publication Date: February 9, 2026

Upcoming Earnings Report

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is scheduled to release its half-year earnings report for the period ending December 31, 2025, on February 11, 2026. This report is highly anticipated as it comes during a period of rising interest rates and increasing operational costs, which could impact the bank's profitability.

FY 2025 Performance Highlights

In its full-year results for FY 2025, released in August 2025, CBA reported a cash net profit after tax (NPAT) of A$10.25 billion, a 4% increase from the previous year. Key highlights include:

• Net interest margin (NIM) remained stable at 2.08%, up 9 basis points.
• Loan impairment expenses decreased by 9% to A$726 million, indicating favorable credit conditions.
• Operating income rose by 5% to A$28.47 billion, although expenses increased by 6% due to inflation and investments in technology and staffing.
• Shareholders received a record dividend of A$4.85 per share, a 4% increase, along with a A$1 billion share buyback announcement.

Despite these positive results, CBA's stock fell by 5.41% on the day of the earnings release, attributed to high valuation concerns and a cautious outlook for FY 2026.

Q1 2026 Trading Update

On November 11, 2025, CBA's Q1 2026 trading update revealed a cash NPAT of approximately A$2.6 billion, a 2% year-on-year increase. However, the update also highlighted several challenges:

• Core earnings missed consensus estimates by 2% due to unexpected costs, including a NZ$136 million class action settlement.
• Operating expenses (excluding one-offs) rose by 4%, driven by wage and vendor inflation.
• NIM was reported as "slightly lower," impacted by competitive pressures and changing cash rate dynamics.

HY 2026 Earnings Expectations

As the HY 2026 earnings report approaches, investors are looking for signs of stability in the banking sector. Key expectations include:

• Solid credit volumes and low bad debts.
• A robust capital position amidst rising competition and operational costs.
• Insights into how CBA is managing the current rate environment.

CBA's NIM may face further pressure, but could benefit from higher rates and volume growth.

Market Sentiment and Stock Analysis

CBA currently has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 25, significantly higher than its peers. Analysts have rated CBA as a "strong sell," reflecting concerns over its high valuation and market pressures.

Technically, CBA's stock has seen a significant rally of about 120% from its 2023 low, but has recently pulled back by 23.5%. A break above resistance levels could indicate a bullish trend, while a drop below A$146.98 may suggest further declines.

Conclusion

The upcoming earnings report will be crucial for CBA, as it will not only reflect the bank's performance but also set the tone for the broader financial sector amidst challenging economic conditions.