Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Hormuz Traffic Slumps as Brent Holds Above $104

Published: September 11, 2026

Author: Arslan Ali

Key Points

• Strait of Hormuz traffic remains heavily constrained, increasing disruption risk for crude oil and LNG flows.
• Growing risks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb add potential bottlenecks for Middle Eastern energy exports.
• Lower OPEC production reinforces a tighter supply backdrop, although weaker oil-demand growth acts as a counterbalance.

Market Overview

Recent developments in the oil market have tightened fundamentals, primarily due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which have significantly impacted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. On a recent Thursday, only seven ships crossed the strait, a stark decline from the average of 15 ships over the past ten days. This strait is crucial as it handles a significant portion of global crude oil and LNG flows.

In addition to the Hormuz situation, Iran-backed Houthis have seized the port of Mocha in Yemen, further complicating shipping routes in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. Recent attacks on Saudi energy facilities have heightened concerns about potential disruptions in these areas.

OPEC Production and Demand

OPEC's latest data indicates a tightening market, with oil production dropping by 640,000 barrels per day in August, attributed to Saudi disruptions and U.S. sanctions on Iran. Despite planned increases from some OPEC+ members, the overall production decline has contributed to supply concerns.

However, OPEC has also reduced its 2026 growth forecast for global oil demand to 380,000 barrels per day, marking the fifth consecutive reduction. This suggests that while supply is tightening, demand growth is not keeping pace, potentially limiting consumption amid economic uncertainties.

Natural Gas Outlook

The current price of natural gas is around $2.83, testing the $2.85 Fibonacci resistance level. A sustained break above this level could lead to prices reaching $3.51 and possibly $4.02. Conversely, if the price falls below $2.32, it could indicate a bearish trend.

WTI Crude Oil Analysis

WTI crude oil is currently priced at $102.46, having recently broken out from the $93.51 area. The first resistance level to watch is $105.48, with potential targets of $112.87 and $118.12 if this level is surpassed. However, the RSI indicates an overbought condition, suggesting a possible corrective pullback.

Brent Crude Oil Analysis

Brent crude is trading at $107.61, having faced resistance at $110.09. The market remains in a consolidation trend, with key support at $104.14. A break below this level could signal a shift in market sentiment, while a move above $110.09 would confirm bullish momentum towards $114.48.

Conclusion

The current geopolitical tensions and OPEC's production adjustments are critical factors influencing the oil and natural gas markets. Traders should remain vigilant of the evolving situation in the Middle East and its potential impact on energy supply and prices.