Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Fed Pressure Builds
Author: Arslan Ali
Updated: February 19, 2026
Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) has shown resilience, managing to halt its previous losses and gaining traction around the $4,990 level, although it remains below the critical $5,000 mark. The inability to breach this level is attributed to the hawkish minutes from the US Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting, which have pushed US Treasury yields higher and strengthened the US dollar.
Despite the dollar's gains, concerns regarding potential political interference in the Fed's operations are creating uncertainty, which in turn supports gold prices. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
US Economic Data and Fed Minutes Impact
The US dollar has gained ground, reaching a one-week high, primarily due to the hawkish tone of the Fed's minutes. These minutes revealed a division among Fed officials regarding the need for rate cuts, with some advocating for cuts if inflation decreases, while others caution against premature cuts that could jeopardize the 2% inflation target.
Strong US economic data, including better-than-expected industrial production and manufacturing output, has further bolstered the dollar. However, market participants are still anticipating potential rate cuts from the Fed later in the year.
Geopolitical Tensions and Gold's Support
On the geopolitical front, stalled negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have heightened market uncertainty. Additionally, reports of potential US military action against Iran are contributing to a climate of fear, which typically drives investors towards gold.
Looking ahead, traders are focused on upcoming US economic data, including jobless claims and the PCE inflation report, which is crucial for shaping rate cut expectations.
Technical Analysis: Gold and Silver
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is currently hovering around $5,017, having bounced back from a support zone at $4,975. The price is showing higher lows, indicating steady buying power. Key resistance levels are at $5,141 and $5,303, while a drop below $4,975 could lead to tests of $4,859 and $4,685.
Trade Idea: Consider buying at $5,020 or higher, targeting $5,141, and closing the trade if the price falls below $4,975.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver is trading around $78.99, testing a descending trendline. It remains above rising support from $64, with a series of higher lows indicating buying power. Key resistance is at $79.21, while support levels are at $72 and $70.37.
Trade Idea: Buy when silver hits $79.20 or higher, targeting $86, and close the trade if the price slides below $76.
Conclusion
The interplay between US economic data, Fed policy signals, and geopolitical tensions will continue to shape the outlook for gold and silver prices. Investors should remain vigilant and consider technical indicators when making trading decisions.