Gold Price Forecast: Safe-Haven Bids Lift Gold Price as Iran Talks Loom

Published: February 26, 2026, 12:49 GMT+00:00

Key Points

• Gold prices are rising as traders monitor U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and tariff uncertainties.
• Safe-haven demand is bolstered by ongoing Geneva nuclear discussions, supporting gold near $5171.
• Traders are focused on the critical 61.8% Fibonacci level at $5143.89, which could lead to a breakout towards $5250.

Market Overview

Gold prices are experiencing a mixed performance as traders await updates on the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and assess the implications of new U.S. tariff legislation. The uncertainty surrounding these events is influencing market dynamics, both limiting gains and providing support for gold prices.

As of 12:17 GMT, gold (XAUUSD) is trading at $5171.00, reflecting a modest increase of $7.42 or +0.14%.

Iran Tensions and Tariff Uncertainty

The third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks is taking place in Geneva, with U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner involved. President Trump has made it clear that he opposes allowing Iran, labeled as the world's largest sponsor of terrorism, to acquire nuclear weapons.

Additionally, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced an increase in tariff rates for certain countries from 10% to 15% or more, although specific details on the affected countries were not provided. This tariff news has contributed to a slight uptick in the U.S. dollar, which remains below the 50-day moving average, thus limiting support for gold prices.

Gold Price Trends

Gold reached a record high of $5,602.23 on January 29, 2026, and has seen a 20% increase this year, driven by strong demand from Asia and central banks. The market sentiment remains bullish, with traders looking for further directional clues from the upcoming U.S. jobless claims report.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the gold market is in an uptrend, supported by the main swing chart and the 50-day moving average. A trade above $5250.00 would signal a continuation of this uptrend, while a drop below $4842.60 would indicate a trend reversal.

The key level to watch is $5143.89. If gold holds above this level, it suggests strong buying interest, potentially leading to upward momentum. Conversely, failing to maintain this level could result in a decline towards the 50% retracement level at $5002.31.

Conclusion

The outcome of the U.S.-Iran negotiations is likely to be a significant driver for gold prices in the near term. A collapse in talks could lead to a surge in gold prices, while ongoing central bank buying will continue to support the market, regardless of whether a deal framework is established or a complete agreement is reached.