Market Overview - July 11, 2025

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: July 11, 2025, 08:32 GMT+00:00

Key Points

• President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada effective August 1, impacting market sentiment.
• Bitcoin surged to a record high of $116,781, driven by institutional demand and favorable U.S. policies.
• Markets are awaiting the Treasury statement at 18:00 GMT, with a forecast deficit of -$41.5B.

Market Performance

U.S. equity futures are under pressure following the tariff announcement, with S&P 500 futures down 0.48%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.57%, and Dow futures off 0.45% in pre-market trading. This follows a previous session where major indices closed at record highs:

• S&P 500: +0.27% to 6,280.46
• Nasdaq: +0.09% to 20,630.67
• Dow: +0.43% to 44,650.64

Economic Insights

Traders are evaluating the sustainability of the ongoing market rally, which has been led by consumer discretionary and mega-cap tech stocks. Analysts suggest that macroeconomic resilience and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts will be crucial for maintaining this rally.

Key Economic Releases

The Treasury Department is set to release its monthly statement, with a forecast deficit of -$41.5B, down from a previous $316.0B. A narrower deficit could ease expectations for immediate Fed easing, while a wider shortfall may heighten funding concerns and increase volatility in yields and risk assets.

Notable Earnings

Levi Strauss shares rose 6% after exceeding earnings expectations, reporting an EPS of $0.22 against an expected $0.13, and revenue of $1.45B versus $1.37B. PriceSmart also saw a 7% increase post-market after reporting an EPS of $1.14, slightly above the expected $1.12.

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

Bitcoin reached a record high of $116,781.10, supported by institutional demand and a favorable regulatory environment, last trading at $116,563.11. Stocks related to Bitcoin, such as Mara Holdings and CleanSpark, saw gains of nearly 3% after hours.

Spot gold increased by 0.4% to $3,336.85, driven by safe-haven demand amid tariff concerns, although gains were limited by a stronger dollar. Oil prices stabilized, with Brent at $69.08 and WTI at $67.09, recovering from previous declines.

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 E-mini futures last traded at 6,291.75, with resistance at 6,333.25 and support levels at 6,023.2 (50-day MA) and 5,808.75. The Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures last traded at 22,908.00, with resistance at 23,112.00 and support at 21,788.4 (50-day MA). The Dow E-mini futures last traded at 44,661.00, with resistance at 45,177.00 and support at 42,972.8 (50-day MA).

Outlook

Today's market session is expected to be influenced by the newly announced tariffs, with traders closely monitoring the Treasury statement for insights on funding and deficit implications. The record highs in Bitcoin and the strength in gold indicate active flows in alternative assets, while oil prices are stabilizing after recent declines. The market's ability to absorb rising trade tensions while maintaining recent gains will be a focal point, alongside sector rotation and liquidity conditions as the week closes.