Gold vs. Bitcoin – Bearish Bitcoin Breakdown Confirms Bullish Gold Forecast Into 2026
Author: Muhammad Umair
Updated: December 17, 2025
Key Points
- Gold is projected to rally towards $5,000 as safe-haven demand increases amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Bitcoin is under pressure below $100,000, with a bearish breakdown indicating potential further decline towards $75,000.
- Weakening job growth, rising unemployment, and geopolitical tensions are driving expectations for rate cuts, benefiting gold.
Market Overview
Gold prices are consolidating below record highs after a significant 64% increase year-to-date, currently trading above $4,300. In contrast, Bitcoin is struggling below the $100,000 mark, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets. This article explores the macroeconomic drivers, technical indicators, and the evolving gold-to-Bitcoin ratio that suggest gold's continued outperformance.
Gold's Bullish Momentum
Gold is experiencing strong bullish momentum, consolidating near record levels as demand for safe-haven assets rises amidst macroeconomic uncertainty. The U.S. dollar's recent weakness and falling interest rates have contributed to gold's impressive rally. Central banks and institutions are increasing their gold-backed ETF holdings, reflecting heightened demand. The potential for a breakout above the all-time high of $4,380 could pave the way for gold to reach $5,000.
Bitcoin's Bearish Breakdown
Conversely, Bitcoin is facing downward pressure after peaking at $126,000. Currently, it is consolidating below $100,000, with a bearish structure indicating further declines. A breakdown below $85,000 would confirm this bearish trend, potentially leading to a drop towards $75,000. The divergence between Bitcoin and gold suggests a shift in investor preference towards traditional safe havens.
Gold-to-Bitcoin Ratio Analysis
The gold-to-Bitcoin ratio has broken out of a descending channel, indicating a rising trend favoring gold. This trend is supported by the bearish patterns emerging in the Bitcoin market. The ratio's strength suggests that if the current trend continues, gold will likely outperform Bitcoin in early 2026.
Macro Drivers Favoring Gold
Recent labor market data indicates a cooling economy, with job growth slowing and unemployment rising. The Federal Reserve is expected to implement rate cuts, which would decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, are increasing demand for gold as a safe haven. In contrast, Bitcoin's risk asset nature makes it vulnerable during economic downturns.
Conclusion
The divergence between gold and Bitcoin is expected to widen in early 2026. Gold is supported by softening labor market data and geopolitical tensions, with a bullish outlook towards $5,000. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's vulnerability and bearish trends suggest a potential decline towards $75,000 as investor preferences shift away from risk assets.
Author's Background
Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD, specializing in currencies and precious metals. He leads a team providing advanced market analytics and trading strategies through Gold Predictors.