Oil and Natural Gas Market Analysis

Published: April 09, 2026

Key Points

• WTI Fibonacci Support: Price is holding above the 0.618 retracement level near $94.00; a break back above $100.00 targets $105.00.
• Brent Channel Intact: Despite the crash, Brent remains within a healthy rising channel, with the 200-day SMA supporting the uptrend.
• Natural Gas Bearishness: Gas broke $2.77 support, forming a structure of lower highs and lows that points toward a $2.65 target.

Market Overview

Oil and natural gas prices have experienced significant volatility following a ceasefire that has eased supply fears in the Middle East. Crude oil prices surged to nearly $118 due to concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil trade. However, prices have since plummeted by 15-19%, stabilizing around the $96 to $98 range. Natural gas prices also fell approximately 5% to $2.72 per MMBtu, driven by weak demand expectations and ample US supplies.

Natural Gas Analysis

Natural gas is currently in a bearish trend, having broken below the key support level of $2.77. This has resulted in a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a strong bearish sentiment in the market. The price remains below both the 50 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, confirming the bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 40, suggesting continued downward pressure with no signs of a reversal. Analysts predict a potential decline to $2.65 unless the price can recover above $2.77.

Trade Idea: Sell below $2.77 with a target of $2.65 and a stop loss above $2.85.

WTI Oil Analysis

WTI oil prices experienced a sharp decline to around $111.80 before testing the trendline support at $91.00. The market is currently indecisive, with small-bodied candles indicating uncertainty about the next direction. The trendline appears to be a higher low within a bullish channel. The RSI dipped near 30 but is now recovering, suggesting that bearish momentum may be fading. The price has held above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level near $94.00, and if it can surpass $100.00, it may target $105.00.

Trade Idea: Buy above $100.00 with a target of $105.00 and a stop loss below $94.00.

Brent Crude Analysis

Brent crude oil followed a similar trajectory to WTI, dropping sharply from $111.78 but maintaining support above the trendline near $91.50. Recent trading activity indicates strong buying interest at lower levels, and the price is attempting to rise above the 50-day Simple Moving Average. The 200-day SMA remains supportive of the overall uptrend. The RSI has bounced from oversold levels, indicating potential for further upside. A key resistance level is near $100.00, and breaking above this could lead to a target of $102.90.

Trade Idea: Buy near $95.00 with a target of $102.90 and a stop loss below $91.50.

Conclusion

The oil and natural gas markets are currently navigating through a phase of volatility influenced by geopolitical factors and supply dynamics. Traders should remain cautious and consider the outlined trade ideas based on technical analysis and market sentiment.