Natural Gas Price Forecast: Key Support Zone Under Threat

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: May 25, 2026

Market Overview

Natural gas prices are currently under pressure following a breakdown below key moving averages. The price has recently tested the 50-day support level, which is critical as downside Fibonacci targets come into focus.

Price Movements

On a recent holiday session, natural gas fell to a 12-day low of $2.98 before finding support at a confluence of technical indicators, including the 50% retracement of the prior advance and the 50-day moving average. An intraday bounce occurred, but resistance was encountered near the 20-day moving average and a short-term uptrend line, as well as the 100-day moving average. These levels had previously acted as support but failed during a breakdown confirmed by a daily close below them.

Reversal Risk

While the test of support near the 50-day moving average could indicate that support may hold, there is a significant risk of failure, which could lead to a deeper decline. The recent price advance peaked at $3.31, completing a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline, suggesting that the pullback may have reached long-term trend resistance represented by the 200-day moving average.

Trend Analysis

The breakdown last week triggered the failure of a small bull pennant formation and a rising trend channel. The support near the breakdown zone was confirmed by several indicators, including the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day moving average, increasing the significance of the breakdown and the loss of that support zone.

Downside Continuation

Downward pressure now dominates the market, suggesting that a drop below Monday’s low of $2.98 could signal a continuation of weakness. This would likely lead to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2.90, which aligns with a minor swing low. If selling pressure accelerates, the lower 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone near $2.79 could also come into play.

Resistance Levels

In terms of near-term recovery, resistance is noted at Monday’s high of $3.10, which is a lower daily high. A rise above this level could shift short-term momentum and trigger a recovery of the recently broken trend indicators. The next key resistance zone is marked at the interim swing high of $3.18.

Conclusion

The natural gas market is currently at a critical juncture, with key support levels being tested. Traders should monitor these levels closely as they could dictate the near-term direction of prices.