Bitcoin Now Most Oversold Versus Gold on Record: Can BTC Still Retake $100K?

Key Points

• The BTC/XAU ratio has fallen 7.52% week-to-date and more than 70% from its December 2025 high.
• The weekly RSI dropped to 20.92, the lowest on record and well below the 30 oversold threshold.
• A death cross print on the BTC/XAU weekly chart could flip the narrative in favor of Bitcoin.

Market Overview

Bitcoin (BTC) has reached its most oversold zone against gold (XAU) amid a persistent risk-off sentiment driven by tariff uncertainties and a downturn in the software sector. As of February 24, the BTC/XAU ratio has decreased significantly, indicating Bitcoin's declining value relative to gold.

Technical Analysis

The BTC/XAU ratio's weekly relative strength index (RSI) has plummeted to 20.92, marking a historic low and indicating that Bitcoin is trading at exceptionally low levels when priced in gold terms. Typically, an oversold RSI suggests a potential bullish reversal; however, current market conditions complicate this outlook.

Market Sentiment and External Factors

Concerns over AI disruptions have intensified the risk-off mood, favoring gold as a safe haven while pressuring Bitcoin. A report from Citrini Research warns that rapid AI adoption could lead to significant job losses and a sharp decline in the S&P 500, further impacting Bitcoin's performance.

Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump has raised Section 122 tariffs to 15%, complicating the macroeconomic landscape and increasing the likelihood of Bitcoin underperforming gold despite its oversold status.

Potential for Recovery

The BTC/XAU chart is approaching another "death cross," which historically has indicated a potential bottom for Bitcoin. In previous cycles, such a cross has preceded significant recoveries, with BTC/XAU advancing approximately 137% over the following year. If a similar rebound occurs, Bitcoin's price could potentially reach $175,000 by early 2027.