XRP Market Analysis - February 19, 2026
Author: Bob Mason
Published: February 19, 2026
Key Highlights
- XRP is trending down towards $1.4 due to hawkish FOMC Minutes and ETF outflows.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are impacting market sentiment.
- Despite current pressures, there are medium-term bullish targets for XRP at $2.5 to $3.0.
Current Market Conditions
XRP has seen a decline, dropping towards $1.4 as a result of several factors including hawkish signals from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes and outflows from cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The FOMC Minutes indicated a need for inflation to decrease further before considering interest rate cuts, which has dampened demand for XRP and the broader crypto market.
Geopolitical Tensions
Rising tensions between the US and Iran have added to the negative sentiment in the market. Reports suggest that the US is closer to military action against Iran, which could lead to a flight-to-safety among investors, further pressuring XRP. Historically, such conflicts have negatively impacted cryptocurrency prices due to increased scrutiny and disruption in global trade.
ETF Outflows
Recent data shows significant outflows from BTC-spot ETFs, which have contributed to the bearish sentiment surrounding XRP. On February 17, the BTC-spot ETF market reported $104.9 million in net outflows, while XRP-spot ETFs also experienced outflows, reflecting a cautious market environment.
Price Forecasts
Despite the current bearish trend, there are optimistic medium- to long-term price targets for XRP:
- Short-term (1-4 weeks): $1.0
- Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5
- Long-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0
Risks to Outlook
Several factors could derail the positive medium-term outlook for XRP, including:
- A potential full-blown conflict with Iran.
- Positive US economic data that could reduce expectations for a Fed rate cut.
- Delays or opposition to the Market Structure Bill in the Senate.
- Extended periods of net outflows from XRP-spot ETFs.
Technical Analysis
XRP has faced significant selling pressure, trading below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). Key technical levels to watch include:
- Support Levels: $1.0, $0.7773
- Resistance Levels: $1.5, $2.0, $2.5, $3.0
A breakout above $1.5 could signal a bullish trend reversal, while a sustained move below $1.0 would reinforce the bearish outlook.
Conclusion
In summary, while XRP faces immediate challenges from geopolitical tensions and market sentiment, there are potential catalysts for recovery in the medium to long term. The passage of the Market Structure Bill and a more dovish Fed could support XRP's price, with targets set at $2.5 and $3.0 in the coming months.