Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Wedge Break Signals Upside

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: March 3, 2026

Overview

The article discusses a recent bullish breakout in natural gas prices, triggered by a falling wedge pattern. This breakout has led to a test of key resistance levels, including the 20-day moving average and a long-term uptrend line, indicating potential for further price increases.

Key Highlights

• Natural gas prices experienced a bullish breakout on Tuesday, reaching an intraday high of $3.19.
• The breakout occurred above the top downtrend line of the wedge and above the previous day's high of $3.07.
• A higher daily low of $2.97 was established, rebounding from support near the 10-day moving average.
• A daily close above the previous day's high is necessary to confirm the breakout, while a drop below Tuesday's low would indicate weakness.

Resistance and Recovery Signals

The market has identified resistance near the uptrend line and the 20-day moving average. A decisive recovery above these levels would strengthen the bullish outlook and negate the bearish implications of previous failures to maintain the long-term uptrend line as support.

Trend Channel and Price Targets

Should the price recover, it could re-enter a larger rising trend channel, with initial targets at lower swing highs of $3.25 and $3.32. A more significant resistance level is at $3.66, which aligns with the 200-day moving average at $3.57.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Before reaching the middle of the trend channel, there is a key upside target zone between $4.56 and $4.59, which corresponds to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downswing. If surpassed, the next target would be the 50% retracement at $5.11, leading up to the November peak of $5.50.

Conclusion

The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key resistance levels and price targets for natural gas as it navigates through this bullish breakout phase. Traders and investors should remain vigilant for confirmation signals to capitalize on potential upward movements in natural gas prices.