Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Slides into Yearly Open Support – Decision Time
Author: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
Date: February 19, 2026
Summary
The Euro has recently experienced a significant pullback, declining over 1.5% from its monthly highs and entering a critical support zone. This area is defined by the yearly open and key Fibonacci retracements, making it a pivotal point for traders. The current price action suggests that the Euro is testing a crucial structural level that could dictate the next phase of its movement.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is currently contained within a descending pitchfork structure, indicating ongoing downside pressure. A daily close below the support level of 1.1746 would signal a resumption of the downtrend, while stabilization above this level could allow for a corrective rebound. The upcoming economic data releases, including Eurozone PMI and US PCE, GDP, and PMI, are expected to influence market sentiment significantly.
Key Levels
Resistance: 1.1820s, 1.1850/69 (key), 1.1919
Support: 1.1746/71 (key), 1.1686, 1.1646
Market Behavior
As the weekly close approaches, traders are closely monitoring the Euro's reaction at this support zone. The outcome here will likely define the Euro's trajectory in the near term. The previous analysis indicated that a rally would need to be capped at 1.1919 if the price were to continue lower, with a daily close below 1.1746 necessary to fuel further declines.
Outlook
The Euro is at a critical juncture, testing pivotal support levels. The focus remains on how the market reacts at this threshold. If the price remains above the yearly open, the bears may be vulnerable in the near term. Conversely, a close below 1.1746 would indicate a stronger bearish sentiment and potential for further declines.
Conclusion
With key economic data on the horizon, including GDP growth expectations for the US, traders should remain vigilant. A stronger-than-expected GDP print could reinforce the Dollar's strength, impacting the Euro's performance. The upcoming sessions will be crucial for determining the Euro's short-term direction.