Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Wedge Signal or Breakdown Risk?
Author: Bruce Powers
Published: March 5, 2026
Overview
The article discusses the current state of natural gas prices, focusing on the potential for a bullish breakout from a falling wedge pattern. However, conflicting signals around key moving averages and trendlines create uncertainty regarding the next price movement.
Current Market Situation
Natural gas is attempting to stabilize after a failed breakout attempt. A recent false breakout occurred, with prices closing below the previous day's low and the upper boundary of the wedge pattern. The initial resistance level was identified at $3.19, which coincided with the 20-day moving average and a long-term uptrend line.
Technical Analysis
Price Movements
On Thursday, natural gas prices showed some recovery, establishing an inside day at support near the wedge's upper boundary. A rally above the previous day's high of $3.08 would indicate a second attempt to reclaim the 20-day average. A bullish reversal signal would require a breakout above the swing high of $3.19, which would also recover the uptrend line.
Resistance and Support Levels
If the price exceeds this week's high, a further bullish reversal above $3.25 would be necessary to confirm the strength of the upward movement. The first target zone for an upside breakout is between $3.56 and $3.66, which includes the 200-day moving average and the lower swing high at the top of the wedge.
Bearish Outlook
Conversely, if natural gas prices remain below the 20-day average and the long-term uptrend line, bearish pressure will persist. A drop below the January swing low of $3.01 indicates a potential deeper correction or a shift in the long-term trend to a lower slope. Immediate support is at $2.89, which would lead to a return to the wedge formation.
Breakdown Risks
A daily close back inside the wedge could increase the likelihood of a decline to the current trend low of $2.78. If this level is breached, the next downside target would be the higher swing low and monthly low at $2.62, with a significant risk of further declines given the bearish momentum.
Conclusion
The natural gas market is at a critical juncture, with the potential for both bullish and bearish outcomes depending on upcoming price movements. Traders should closely monitor key resistance and support levels to gauge the market's direction.
About the Author
Bruce Powers is a seasoned finance professional with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. He holds an MBA and is a CMT® charter holder, having served as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and as a corporate advisor for trading firms.