U.S.–Iran Conflict Rekindles Concerns, Fed Minutes Reinforce Hawkish Tone
By Martin Lam
Key Takeaways
Recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated following attacks on three oil tankers, prompting the U.S. military to conduct airstrikes against Iran and revoke oil export waivers. These developments have raised concerns about the stability of the current ceasefire agreement.
In other news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking its first increase in over three years and hinting at potential further hikes. Market participants are also awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for insights into future monetary policy and the Fed's hawkish stance.
Global Market Review (July 8, 2026)
U.S. equities experienced a decline, primarily driven by weakness in semiconductor stocks. The Dow Jones fell by 0.25%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.45%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 1.16%. Concurrently, U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the dollar strengthened slightly due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East. Gold prices fell by 1.4% as investors shifted focus to the escalating conflicts, while oil prices surged over 5% amid renewed supply concerns.
Key Events Today
- 10:00 - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
- 11:00 - RBNZ Press Conference
- 22:30 - EIA Crude Oil Stock Change
- 02:00 - FOMC Minutes
- 09:30 - CN CPI & PPI (June)
- 19:30 - ECB Minutes
- 20:30 - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 22:00 - US Existing Home Sales (June)
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1438 / 1.1456 | Support: 1.1382 / 1.1364
The EUR/USD pair weakened, retreating to 1.1410 as demand for the dollar increased due to Middle East tensions. A close below the 10-day moving average could indicate a short-term correction.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3414 / 1.3461 | Support: 1.3302 / 1.3264
The GBP/USD pair ended its eight-day rally, slipping below 1.3370. Key support levels are near 1.3300.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 162.84 / 163.11 | Support: 161.94 / 161.66
The USD/JPY pair held near 162.00, with traders cautious about potential Japanese intervention.
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 73.92 / 75.23 | Support: 69.68 / 68.34
Oil prices surged following U.S. strikes on Iran, breaking above the 10-day moving average.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 4148 / 4180 | Support: 4049 / 4008
Gold prices fell for the second consecutive day, pressured by rising yields and a stronger dollar.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 64,407 / 65,564 | Support: 62,578 / 61,655
Cryptocurrency prices fell after the U.S. strikes on Iran, with Bitcoin extending its losses.