Gold Price Forecast Summary

Date: July 13, 2025

Author: James Hyerczyk

Key Highlights

• Gold prices surged nearly 1% due to renewed trade war fears following tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
• Spot gold reclaimed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish shift in market momentum.
• Market participants are anticipating two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by year-end, influenced by dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

Market Reaction to Tariffs

Gold prices experienced a significant rally, with spot gold trading at $3,355.66. The increase was driven by Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, which heightened global trade tensions. This led to a surge in safe-haven buying, pushing silver prices to a 13-year high.

Impact on Treasury Yields

Despite a modest increase in Treasury yields (10-year yields rose to 4.417% and 30-year yields to 4.955%), real yields remain low, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. The dollar index showed slight gains, but its upside potential is limited due to expectations of looser monetary policy and ongoing trade uncertainties.

Technical Analysis

Gold's close above the 50-day moving average adds technical strength to its recovery. After finding support earlier in the month, bulls are targeting near-term resistance at $3,365.92. A breakout above this level could lead to a test of June's peak at $3,451.53, with a key upside target at $3,500.20.

Outlook

The outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by escalating trade tensions, rising rate cut expectations, and a recent close above the 50-day moving average. Traders should monitor for a sustained breakout above $3,366 to confirm further upward movement. Key support levels are identified at $3,244 and $3,228.

Conclusion

With the current market dynamics favoring gold, traders are likely to remain optimistic unless significant changes occur in the dollar's strength or rate cut expectations diminish.