FOMC Meeting Preview: Is Warsh Even Capable of Delivering a Hawkish Hold?
By Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Date: October 27, 2026
Overview
The upcoming FOMC meeting is generating significant interest as Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in approximately 90% odds that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will leave interest rates unchanged. The focus is on whether Chairman Kevin Warsh can deliver a hawkish stance during his press conference.
Key Points
- The FOMC meeting will conclude on October 28, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
- A Reuters poll indicates that 94 out of 100 economists expect the Fed to maintain interest rates in the 3.75-4.00% range.
- Market expectations suggest a potential rate hike by December, with over 80% probability priced in.
Monetary Policy Statement Preview
The monetary policy statements under Warsh are expected to be concise, leaving traders with limited information. The most critical aspect will be the vote count among the twelve members, particularly any dissenters advocating for an immediate rate hike. Notable potential dissenters include Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan.
The interpretation of the vote will be crucial: no dissents may indicate a neutral hold, one dissent could suggest a mildly hawkish hold, and two or more dissents would reinforce the idea of a temporary hold before a likely December hike.
Chairman Warsh's Press Conference
Warsh's commitment to holding a press conference at every FOMC meeting through the end of the year means he will face questions about the current economic outlook and monetary policy. His comments on the pause in rate hikes will be pivotal. If he indicates that rising bond yields are effectively tightening financial conditions, a pause may be more likely. Conversely, if he suggests further tightening is necessary, it could be interpreted as a hawkish hold, impacting the US dollar positively.
Market Implications
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently rangebound, and a hawkish hold could push it below 1.1130, potentially reaching a 17-month low. A more cautious statement could lead to a pullback in the dollar, bringing EUR/USD back towards the middle of its range around 1.12.