Market Analysis Summary: US Jobs Cool, Yields Slide

Author: Martin Lam

Date: October 5, 2026

Key Takeaways

• September payrolls reported at just 29,000, significantly below expectations, with unemployment rising to 4.2%, indicating a cooling labor market.
• U.S. stock markets saw a mild rebound, particularly the Nasdaq, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell below $90.
• Gold prices remained strong, holding above $4,145, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and safe-haven buying, despite being capped by high yields.
• The Hang Seng index remained weak, trading below 24,000 due to high yields, tight liquidity, and the ongoing holiday in mainland China.

Market Overview

Following the release of the employment data, U.S. Treasury yields retreated, with the 10-year yield falling to 5.28% and the Dollar Index dropping to around 101.9. The three major U.S. indices extended their mild rebound, led by the Nasdaq, which rose by 1.9%. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices fell below $90, and gold rebounded to $4,160 after the labor data release.

Economic Calendar Highlights

Key Events on October 5 (GMT+8)

• 06:00 - AU Services & Composite PMI Final SEP
• 08:30 - JP Services & Composite PMI Final SEP
• 15:55 - DE Services & Composite PMI Final SEP
• 16:00 - EU Services & Composite PMI Final SEP
• 16:30 - UK Services & Composite PMI Final SEP
• 21:45 - US Services & Composite PMI Final SEP
• 22:00 - US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI SEP

Market Analysis

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a cautiously bullish rebound, targeting resistance levels at 1.1313/1.1355, with support at 1.1217. The pair is influenced by a softer dollar and lower yields.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is also showing a cautiously bullish bias, with support near 1.3179 and resistance at 1.3274/1.3334. The pair is affected by uncertainties surrounding UK growth and Bank of England policies.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair indicates a mild decline, testing support levels at 157.42/157.18, with resistance at 157.97. The focus remains on Treasury yields and signals from the Bank of Japan.

US Crude Oil Futures

US Crude Oil Futures are oscillating between support at 88.69 and resistance at 91.78, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Spot gold is showing a cautiously bullish trend, with support at 4135 and resistance at 4189/4214. The recent rebound is attributed to weak payroll data, although high yields continue to cap gains.

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Spot silver is also in a cautiously bullish trend, trading between 60.96 and 62.39/63.03 levels.

Dow Jones Futures

The Dow Jones Futures indicate a mild rebound, testing resistance at 51440/51648, with support at 50972.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 is experiencing a short-term rebound, aiming for resistance at 31023/31115, with support at 30786/30714.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin shows short-term bullish momentum, testing resistance at 87369/87926, with support at 86102.

Conclusion

The market is reacting to the latest employment data, with significant implications for future monetary policy and market movements. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic indicators closely.