Oil Market Update - July 8, 2026

Key Inventory Changes

• Crude Oil Inventories: Increased by 3.00 million barrels (expected decline of 1.1 to 1.6 million barrels).
• Distillate Inventories: Decreased by 4.98 million barrels (expected increase of 1.05 million barrels).
• Gasoline Inventories: Decreased by 1.90 million barrels (expected decline of 1.5 million barrels).
• Cushing Inventories: Slight decline of 0.052 million barrels.
• Refinery Capacity Utilization: Decreased by 0.8 percentage points (expected decline of 0.2 percentage points).
• Oil Imports: Increased by 350 thousand barrels per day (bpd).
• Domestic Oil Production: Increased by 50 thousand bpd.

Market Commentary

The latest EIA report presents a mixed set of data regarding US oil inventories. The unexpected rise in crude oil inventories by 3 million barrels marks the first increase since April, driven by higher imports and a decline in refinery activity. The refinery utilization rate fell more than anticipated, contributing to the increase in crude inventories.

Conversely, the decline in refinery activity has led to significant reductions in finished fuel inventories, with distillate inventories dropping nearly 5 million barrels and gasoline inventories also seeing a stronger-than-expected decline. These factors are bullish for oil product prices, counteracting the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil itself.

Despite these developments, Brent crude prices are hovering around $79.50 per barrel, indicating that broader geopolitical factors, particularly tensions in the Middle East, are currently overshadowing typical fundamental data. The potential for conflict escalation, especially with recent statements from Donald Trump regarding Iran, is influencing market sentiment and pushing oil prices closer to the $80 mark.