Market Quick Take - 18 February 2026

Market Drivers and Catalysts

• Equities: US markets ended flat amid concerns over AI, while European markets rose due to gains in the banking and healthcare sectors. Asian markets saw a rise in thin trading due to the Lunar New Year.
• Volatility: The VIX remained steady, with a focus on upcoming Fed minutes and core PCE data.
• Digital Assets: The market is in a consolidation phase, with mixed inflows and outflows among cryptocurrencies.
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rebounded from key support levels.
• Currencies: The GBP weakened due to soft employment data, while the NZD fell on dovish RBNZ signals.
• Commodities: Gold and silver prices rebounded after a two-day decline, while crude oil prices remained stable amid geopolitical tensions.

Macro Events

• ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to leave her position before the end of her term, aiming for a successor to be appointed before the French presidential election.
• The RBNZ maintained interest rates but adjusted its rate hike forecast to a 50% chance for this year, leading to a decline in the NZD.
• Japan plans to invest $36 billion in US critical minerals and energy facilities as part of a larger $550 billion investment commitment.
• Japanese exports surged by 16.8% year-on-year in January, exceeding market expectations.
• Progress was made in US-Iran nuclear talks, reducing the likelihood of immediate military conflict.

Macro Calendar Highlights

Key economic data releases include:

• UK January CPI
• US December Durable Goods Orders
• US January Housing Starts and Building Permits
• US Treasury auction of 20-year notes
• US Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes

Earnings This Week

Notable earnings reports include:

• Today: Analog Devices, Booking Holdings, Glencore, Carvana, BAE Systems, DoorDash, Moody’s, Orange
• Thursday: Walmart, Alibaba, Nestle, Airbus, Rio Tinto, Deere, Newmont, Zurich Insurance
• Friday: Air Liquide, Warner Brothers Discovery, AngloGold Ashanti, Anglo American, Danone

Equities Overview

USA

Wall Street finished nearly unchanged, with the S&P 500 up 0.1%. Investors remained cautious due to AI disruption concerns and a busy earnings week. Notable stock movements included:

• Masimo surged 34.2% after a buyout agreement with Danaher.
• Fiserv gained 6.9% following news of an activist stake.
• General Mills fell 7.0% after cutting its profit outlook.

Europe

European equities rose, with the STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5%. Key movements included:

• BNP Paribas rose 1.7% as the banking sector rebounded.
• Avolta climbed 5.0% after an analyst upgrade.
• Antofagasta fell 3.4% despite strong profits.

Asia

Asian markets rose in light trading, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.2%. Key stock movements included:

• Tokyo Electron rose 3.5% as chip stocks rebounded.
• National Australia Bank jumped 4.0% after reporting a significant profit increase.

Volatility Insights

Volatility remains subdued, with the VIX at 20.29. Market focus is on upcoming macro catalysts, particularly the FOMC minutes and core PCE inflation data.

Digital Assets Overview

Crypto markets are currently stable, with Bitcoin trading just below $68,000 and Ethereum near $2,000. Recent ETF flows indicate a cautious approach among investors.

Fixed Income Summary

Japan’s government bonds stabilized after a rally, while US Treasuries saw a sell-off as yields rebounded from cycle lows.

Commodities Update

Gold and silver prices rebounded, while crude oil prices remained under pressure due to geopolitical tensions.

Currencies Overview

The GBP weakened following disappointing employment data, while the NZD fell after the RBNZ's cautious stance on interest rates.