Overview
On July 11, 2025, a significant report was released detailing the performance of the Canadian job market for June 2025. The report indicated a robust increase in employment, with the Canadian economy adding 83,100 jobs, far exceeding expectations of no job growth. This surge in employment contributed to a decrease in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, down from the anticipated 7.1%.
Key Statistics
- Net Change in Employment: +83,100 jobs (expected: +0 jobs)
- Unemployment Rate: 6.9% (expected: 7.1%)
- Average Hourly Wages (YoY): +3.2% (expected: +3.0%)
- Building Permits (MoM): +12% (expected: -0.8%)
- Participation Rate: 65.4% (expected: 65.0%)
Market Implications
The positive employment figures suggest that the Canadian labor market is healthier than previously assessed. This development may reduce the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, reinforcing the current monetary policy stance. The report highlighted that the employment growth was primarily in part-time positions, which accounted for 70,000 of the new jobs.
Market Reaction
Following the release of the employment data, the Canadian dollar (CAD) experienced a rally, with the USD/CAD trading 0.13% lower and CAD/JPY rising by 0.20%. Market participants are now looking ahead to additional economic releases from the US, including the USDA WASDE Report and the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count, which could further influence market dynamics.
Conclusion
The June 2025 Labour Force Survey indicates a significant rebound in the Canadian job market, with strong job growth and a declining unemployment rate. These results are likely to have a lasting impact on monetary policy and market sentiment regarding the Canadian economy.