ASX 200 Forecast: Mining Resilience Offsets Hormuz Tension and Westpac Sentiment Slump

Published: April 15, 2026

Key Points

• The ASX 200 index reached a six-week high near 9,000, reclaiming the daily 21-EMA despite geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Consumer sentiment in Australia has plummeted, with the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index dropping 12.5% to 80.1, marking the steepest decline since the pandemic.
• Mining stocks are leading the market, providing a buffer against inflation concerns, with key support at 8,635 and resistance at 9,230.

Market Overview

The article discusses the current state of the ASX 200 index amidst rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. Navy's blockade of Iranian ports following failed peace talks. Despite crude oil prices nearing $104, which typically would negatively impact equities, the ASX 200 is buoyed by strong performance in the mining sector. Major companies like BHP and Rio Tinto are seen as hedges against inflation, suggesting that the market is banking on commodity-led resilience rather than a complete economic downturn.

Consumer Confidence Decline

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index has shown a significant decline, indicating that Australian consumers are feeling the pressure from rising petrol prices and the potential for increased interest rates. The index's drop to 80.1 reflects a growing pessimism about personal finances, with the sub-index measuring family finances compared to a year ago falling to a concerning 66.8.

Technical Analysis

Despite negative headlines, the technical outlook for the ASX 200 appears more optimistic. The index has successfully defended key support levels between 8,255 and 8,635 during the initial panic over Hormuz tensions. A weekly close above 9,000 would signal a continuation of the upward trend. The daily chart shows a V-shaped recovery, with the price reclaiming the 21-period EMA, indicating potential for further gains as institutional investors accumulate shares in the mining sector.

Renko Chart Insights

Analysis of the Renko chart reveals a strong institutional bid, with the long-term SMA acting as a support floor. The trend remains positive, and momentum indicators suggest that the ASX 200 may push higher unless there is a significant drop below the 8,650 level.

The Verdict

The current trend for the ASX 200 is neutral with a positive bias. Key support levels are identified at 8,255, 8,635, and 8,890, while resistance is seen at 9,230. The expectation is for the ASX 200 to gradually rise towards the 9,230 resistance zone, driven by the mining sector's performance amidst ongoing energy-driven supply constraints. If the index can maintain its position above the daily 21-EMA, the potential for a re-test of all-time highs remains strong.

About the Author

Cedric Thompson, CMT, CFA, is an investment strategist with extensive experience in asset management, corporate strategy, and multi-asset investing.