Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: Seasonal Weakness Meets Key Support
By Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
Date: 18/02/2026
Overview
The Nasdaq 100 has experienced a decline of 3.3% in February, a month historically known for negative returns. Despite this pullback, the current price action suggests a controlled retracement within a broader uptrend, rather than a significant downturn.
Seasonal Context
February is one of only two months that typically yield negative average returns for the Nasdaq 100, with an average decline of around 5%. Given that tech stocks rallied over 55% from the April low to the October record high, the current pullback is viewed more as a digestion phase rather than a deterioration of the market.
Looking ahead, seasonality is expected to improve in March, where average returns turn positive with a 66.7% win rate. Asset managers remain net-long on Nasdaq futures, indicating that the current correction is a natural part of the ongoing uptrend.
Technical Analysis
Monthly and Weekly Charts
The monthly chart indicates that the Nasdaq 100 is still in a solid uptrend, and the current losses appear relatively shallow. The earnings season did not produce the anticipated disappointments, which has limited downside potential for bearish traders.
Currently, about 50% of stocks are trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a neutral stance for both bulls and bears. This breadth reading supports the idea of a controlled correction rather than the onset of a broader market downturn.
The weekly chart shows that downside momentum is waning after a three-week selloff, with the 24,000 level identified as a critical support point where bulls may re-enter the market.
Daily Chart Outlook
Recent price action suggests that the Nasdaq 100 may have established a swing low, or is close to doing so. Despite a three-day decline on rising volume, the presence of a lower wick and diminishing daily range indicates a potential shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. Importantly, the recent low respected the 200-day moving average, and previous selloffs did not decisively break these long-term averages.
With bullish RSI divergences and a series of higher lows above the November trough, there is potential for bulls to reclaim the 25,000 level and retest the previous high around 25,447. However, choppy trading conditions may persist into month-end, and another dip cannot be ruled out. The bias remains bullish as long as prices hold above 24,000, with the possibility of reaching new record highs as seasonality turns favorable in March.