Market Analysis Summary: USD/CHF Outlook
Author: Elior Manier
Date: February 19, 2026
Overview
The Swiss Franc (CHF) has gained significant attention in 2025, primarily due to a combination of factors including de-dollarization, capital flows towards Europe, and the weakening of the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven currency. The USD/CHF pair reached a 14-year low recently, marking a notable decline of 17% at the start of the year, which has attracted bearish traders.
Market Dynamics
As the US Dollar (USD) experiences extreme bearish positioning, questions arise about the sustainability of this trend. If the USD finds strength, it could pose challenges for those heavily shorting the currency. Recent outflows from safe-haven assets like Gold and Silver, coinciding with Kevin Warsh's appointment as head of the Federal Reserve, have raised concerns about the appeal of low-yielding assets, including the Swiss Franc.
Inflation and Economic Pressures
Switzerland is currently facing deflationary pressures, which have led to a stronger CHF, negatively impacting exports. The latest inflation report indicated a modest increase of 0.1%. If inflation does not show significant improvement, the Swiss National Bank may be compelled to consider negative interest rates, which could have severe implications for the economy.
Technical Analysis of USD/CHF
USD/CHF Daily Chart – Source: TradingView
The USD/CHF pair is currently breaking out from a mid-February triangle consolidation pattern. The daily RSI and uptrend suggest potential upward momentum, with traders focusing on the Monday lows (0.7675) as a key support level. A failure to maintain above this level could invalidate the breakout.
Resistance and Support Levels
Resistance Levels:
- 0.7780 to 0.78 - Momentum Pivot
- 0.7850 - Pivotal Resistance (Bullish Above)
- 0.7950 - Minor Resistance
- 0.8075 to 0.81 - Late 2025 Range highs
Support Levels:
- 0.7725 - 50H Moving Average
- 0.77 to 0.7725 - August 2011 Lows Support
- 0.76292 - 2026 and 14-year lows
- 0.76 - Support zone July 2011
- 0.70696 - All-Time lows (August 2011)
Conclusion
As the USD/CHF pair shows signs of a potential bottom, traders are advised to monitor key levels for breakout opportunities. The current market conditions suggest that volatility may increase, providing trading setups for those looking to capitalize on price movements.
For further insights and updates, follow Elior Manier on Twitter/X.