Will the First U.S. NFP of the Year Shift Market Direction?

Date: January 9, 2026

Market Highlights

U.S. initial jobless claims have increased slightly, indicating weak labor demand. On the stock market, technology stocks like Nvidia saw declines, while defense stocks rose following President Trump's proposal to expand the military budget. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.55%, the S&P 500 saw minor gains, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.44%. The U.S. Dollar Index continued its upward trend, closing at 98.87, a 0.125% increase.

Gold and Oil Prices

Gold prices remained stable as investors awaited the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. However, adjustments in the broader commodity index limited gold's potential gains. In contrast, oil prices rebounded over 3%, reaching a two-week high due to concerns over supply disruptions from Venezuela, Russia, Iraq, and Iran.

Key Outlook for NFP Report

The upcoming December nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show job growth of 55,000, down from 64,000 previously, suggesting a normalization in job growth rates. The unemployment rate is anticipated to decrease slightly to 4.5% from 4.6%. Meeting these expectations could indicate a resilient labor market, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates in their January meeting.

Key Data and Events Today

• 09:30 - China CPI (December)
• 15:00 - Germany Industrial Production (November)
• 18:00 - EU Retail Sales (November)
• 21:30 - Canada Unemployment Rate (December)
• 21:30 - U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (December)
• 21:30 - U.S. Building Permits (October Preliminary)
• 21:30 - U.S. Housing Starts (September)
• 23:00 - U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary January)

Market Analysis

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair has been trading lower within a descending channel, with resistance around 1.1710–1.1730 and support at 1.1615–1.1593. A stronger dollar and geopolitical uncertainties are weighing on the euro.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has weakened after breaking below a rising trendline, with resistance at 1.3485–1.3505 and support at 1.3402–1.3383. The pair is influenced by dollar dynamics ahead of the NFP report.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY remains strong within an ascending channel, supported above 156.40–156.08. Resistance is capped near 157.44–157.76, with firm U.S. yields supporting the dollar.

U.S. Crude Oil Futures

WTI crude oil prices surged over 3% due to heightened supply risks, with resistance near $59.23–59.61 and support at $57.31–56.95.

Spot Gold

Gold is consolidating above the $4,379–4,411 support zone, with resistance at $4,550–4,582. The direction of gold prices is contingent on the upcoming NFP data.

Dow Futures

Dow Futures are consolidating below the resistance zone of 49,772–50,088, with support at 48,742–48,431. Defense stocks have rebounded due to military budget proposals.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 has pulled back after failing to break resistance at 26,179–26,449, with support at 25,290–25,016.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has eased towards $90,000, facing pressure from geopolitical risks and cautious positioning ahead of the NFP report.

Conclusion

The upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is poised to significantly influence market direction, particularly in the context of labor market resilience and Federal Reserve policy expectations.