Cocoa Price Forecast: Third-Party Price Targets
As of September 30, 2025, cocoa prices are experiencing fluctuations, with US cocoa trading at $7,398.50 and UK cocoa at $5,149.10. The trading ranges for the day are noted as $7,138.90-$7,483.40 for US cocoa and $4,979.70-$5,185.50 for UK cocoa.
Market Influences
Current cocoa prices are being supported by supply concerns in West Africa, particularly due to lower-than-expected port arrivals in Ivory Coast and an 8.5% year-on-year drop in cocoa grind volumes reported in May. Additionally, the US dollar index is hovering around 105.2, which is exerting pressure on dollar-denominated cocoa contracts.
Analyst Price Targets
Wallet Investor
Wallet Investor, an algorithmic forecasting service, predicts that cocoa will close 2025 at approximately $8,127.81, with potential increases to $9,450.89 within the next year and $18,225.47 by 2030.
Trading Economics
According to Trading Economics, their global macro models forecast New York cocoa futures to reach $7,612.55 per ton by the end of Q3 2025, driven by healthy pod counts and anticipated higher output from Ecuador.
J.P. Morgan
J.P. Morgan's analysis suggests that cocoa prices will remain structurally elevated around $6,000 per ton into 2026, as improving supply is countered by ongoing productivity challenges in major producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Market Consensus
The consensus among analysts indicates a price range for cocoa between $4,000 and $7,613 per ton for New York cocoa, and around £5,500 per ton for London cocoa. This reflects an expectation of improved output from West Africa, despite ongoing productivity constraints.
Technical Analysis
US Cocoa Technical Overview
As of the latest data, US Cocoa (CCc1) is trading at $7,398.50, below its 20/50/100/200-day moving averages (DMAs) of approximately $7,796, $8,038, $8,700, and $9,233. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42, indicating neutral momentum. Key resistance is identified at $8,529, while initial support is at the $7,185 pivot, with a potential decline towards $7,000 if this level is breached.
UK Cocoa Technical Overview
UK Cocoa (CCc1L) is trading at $5,149.10, also below its 20/50/100/200 DMAs of around $5,362, $5,386, $5,973, and $6,845. The RSI is at 38, suggesting neutral conditions. Resistance is noted at the $5,539 pivot, with initial support at $5,064, and a drop below this could lead to a decline towards $4,800.
Client Sentiment
Current client sentiment for cocoa CFDs shows that 84.8% of US Cocoa CFD buyers hold open positions, compared to 15.2% sellers, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. For UK Cocoa CFDs, buyers represent 86.8% of open positions versus 13.2% sellers, also reflecting a significant bullish outlook.
Data is accurate as of September 10, 2025.