NVIDIA (NVDA) Q4 Earnings Preview: High Stakes for the AI Standard-Bearer

Author: Zain Vawda

Date: February 24, 2026

Overview

NVIDIA is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 25, 2026, with analysts projecting revenues between $65.6 billion and $65.7 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.50 to $1.52. The upcoming guidance for the next quarter, expected to be around $71.7 billion, is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for the stock.

Market Influence

NVIDIA's performance is crucial not only for its own stock but also for the broader tech sector, as it has contributed 15% to the total market return over the past year. The company holds a substantial weight in major indices, including approximately 8% in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

Key Expectations

• Revenue: Analysts expect a year-over-year increase of about 67%.
• EPS: A significant rise from $0.89 reported in the same period last year.
• Next-Quarter Guidance: Focus on the anticipated $71.7 billion for the April quarter.

Investor Focus Areas

Key areas of interest for investors include:

• Blackwell Production Ramp: Investors are keen on production yields and shipping timelines for the next-generation Blackwell chips.
• Data Center Diversity: Scrutiny on whether NVIDIA's growth is diversifying beyond the "Big Four" tech companies.
• Gross Margin Trajectory: Monitoring the adjusted gross margin of approximately 75% and any potential impacts from the Blackwell ramp-up.
• Geopolitical Landscape: Updates on U.S. export restrictions and market share recovery in China.

Potential Share Price Implications

NVIDIA's stock has been consolidating between $170 and $195. The outcomes of the earnings report could lead to significant price movements:

• Bull Case: A strong earnings report could push the stock above $195–$200, potentially reaching all-time highs near $210.
• Bear Case: Conservative guidance or supply chain issues could see the stock test support at $170, with a potential deeper pullback towards $145–$150.

Conclusion

As NVIDIA approaches its earnings report, the market is prepared for volatility, with options pricing indicating a potential move of +/- 5.5%. Investors are advised to focus on the Blackwell delivery schedule and gross margin stability, as these factors will be critical in determining the future trajectory of NVIDIA and the broader AI trade.

For more insights, follow Zain on Twitter/X @zvawda.