XRP Price Hits $1: Why a 90% Rebound Could Be Next in 2026

Key Points

• XRP is forming a significant weekly falling wedge pattern, with its lower boundary defending the critical $1 psychological level.
• The decline aligns with historical accumulation floors that triggered major market bottoms in 2020 and 2022.
• A decisive breakout above the wedge trendline could signal a technical rebound toward the $1.88–$2.00 target zone in 2026.

Current Market Overview

XRP has extended its weekly decline, hitting the $1 psychological target for the first time since November 2024. Currently trading at $1.04, XRP is down over 70% from its July 2025 high of around $3.64. Despite this decline, the price has reached an attractive accumulation area, suggesting a potential short-term bullish reversal.

Falling Wedge Pattern Analysis

XRP is carving out a massive falling wedge structure, a pattern recognized by traders as a precursor to bullish reversals. The current price is aggressively testing the wedge’s lower boundary at around $1, which coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement line, creating a strong support area for buyers.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the oversold threshold of 30, indicating that the downtrend may be overextended. If buyers defend the $0.85 to $1.00 support zone, a short-term bullish reversal toward the wedge’s upper trendline, around $1.20–$1.28, is anticipated, representing a potential 20%–30% increase from current prices.

Potential Price Rally

A breakout above the upper descending trendline could forecast a significant price rally of approximately 90% toward the $1.88–$2.00 area. This target is derived by adding the wedge’s maximum height to its potential breakout point at around $0.80, aligning with the apex where the two falling trendlines converge.

On-Chain Metrics and Historical Context

The macro bullish thesis is supported by on-chain metrics, particularly Glassnode’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. This metric helps identify overvalued and undervalued zones by mapping standard deviations from the historical mean.

The −0.5 standard deviation band has historically served as an accumulation floor for major cyclical bottoms, with XRP price action bottoming near this threshold in both 2020 and 2022. As of June 2026, this band is around the $0.96 mark, coinciding with the $1 psychological support and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement line.

If history repeats, defending this area could solidify a multi-year baseline, with an initial macro rebound likely targeting the Realized Price of $1.39. A successful flip of this level could lead to a retest of the all-time mean line near $1.84.