USD/CHF at the Edge: Long-Term Range Faces Breakdown Risk
Date: 24 December 2025
Overview
The USD/CHF currency pair is currently at a critical juncture, as it has been trading within a wide rectangle pattern since June. This sideways movement indicates a lack of a clear long-term trend. Recently, the price tested the upper boundary of this range in early November but failed to break through, leading to a retreat back to the lower boundary, which has historically served as a significant support level.
Technical Analysis
The lower boundary of the rectangle has been tested multiple times over the past few months, specifically in September, October, and November, making it a crucial technical level. Despite positive U.S. GDP data, the dollar has not gained traction, and the price continues to decline. This suggests that buyers are not defending this support level with sufficient strength, raising the risk of a potential downside breakout.
Trading Scenarios
From a trading perspective, two scenarios are emerging:
- Bearish Scenario: A daily and weekly close below the support level, particularly during the Christmas week, would signal a strong long-term sell signal, confirming a breakout to the downside.
- Bullish Scenario: Conversely, if there is a clear demand reaction and a bullish reversal from the current support area, it would validate the range and provide a signal to go long, targeting the upper boundary of the rectangle.
Given these dynamics, USD/CHF is positioned as a key pair to monitor in the current market environment.