Natural Gas Price Forecast Summary
On July 14, 2025, natural gas prices experienced a notable counter-trend rally, reaching a six-day high of $3.50. This movement was significant as it marked the reclamation of the 200-Day Moving Average (MA), indicating short-term strength in the market. The price action established a higher daily high at $3.50 and a higher low at $3.38 for three consecutive days, suggesting that buyers were gaining control in the short term.
Market Analysis
As of the latest trading session, natural gas was positioned in the upper third of its daily range, reinforcing the bullish sentiment following the breakout above the 200-Day MA. This breakout is seen as a confirmation of a bullish reversal from a support level around a rising trendline. A higher swing low was established at $3.15, coinciding with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, which adds to the bullish narrative. However, analysts caution that further bullish signals are necessary for a sustainable reversal, particularly an advance above the recent swing high of $3.57.
Resistance Levels
Traders are advised to monitor potential resistance levels above the current high, particularly in the range of $3.53 to $3.55. This range includes the 20-Day MA at $3.55 and the 50-Day MA at $3.54. Additionally, the beginning of this resistance range aligns with an Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) level from the April swing lows. The previous trend support line, which is now being tested as resistance, could also play a critical role in determining the market's next moves.
Future Outlook
If the price can reclaim the $3.57 swing high, the next target zone would be the significant lower swing high at $3.75. A decisive breakout above this level would provide another bullish reversal signal, indicating a stronger upward trend in natural gas prices.
Conclusion
Overall, the natural gas market is showing signs of short-term strength, but traders should remain cautious and watch for additional bullish confirmations before making significant trading decisions. The interplay between support and resistance levels will be crucial in the coming sessions.