Natural Gas and Oil Market Analysis: 10 Weeks of Ceasefire
Published: June 09, 2026
Author: Arslan Ali
Key Points
- The US-Iran ceasefire has lasted over ten weeks, leading to a gradual increase in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- WTI crude oil prices have dropped to $90.07, breaking below key technical levels.
- Brent crude oil is holding at $93.39, showing neutral-to-bearish momentum.
- Natural gas futures are steady at $3.174, maintaining a bullish structure.
Market Overview
The oil and natural gas markets are currently balanced due to the ongoing US-Iran ceasefire, which has reduced geopolitical tensions and allowed for increased tanker throughput. This has led to a decrease in the geopolitical price premium that previously influenced crude oil prices. As a result, market focus has shifted back to standard supply-demand dynamics.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
Global oil supply appears favorable, with U.S. production near record highs and OPEC+ maintaining output discipline. Additional supply is coming from Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. Although Iranian supply has not fully returned, it is gradually increasing. Demand has shown modest recovery, particularly in Asia, but overall global consumption growth for 2026 is expected to be moderate due to higher interest rates and tighter consumer credit, especially in developed markets.
Natural Gas Market Insights
Natural gas prices have remained stable, supported by the ceasefire and milder spring weather, which have aided storage builds in the U.S. and EU. With reduced geopolitical risks affecting LNG supply from the Middle East, spot prices for LNG have decreased. Demand for natural gas remains robust as we approach fall, particularly in Asia and Europe.
Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Futures
Natural gas is trading at $3.174, with a bullish structure indicated by higher lows and a positive RSI near 52. The price is expected to test resistance levels between $3.195 and $3.256. A trade idea suggests buying at $3.174 with a target of $3.256 and a stop at $3.10.
WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude oil has slipped to $90.07, breaking below the blue ascending channel and the red 50-period moving average. The bearish trend is evident, with a target of $89.00 suggested for selling at $90.07, with a stop at $91.50.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude oil is trading at $93.39, testing the floor of a descending channel. The market remains neutral-to-bearish, with a suggested sell target of $92.73 and a stop at $94.50.
Conclusion
The current market conditions reflect a cautious optimism due to the ongoing ceasefire and improved supply dynamics. However, traders should remain vigilant for potential volatility should geopolitical tensions resurface or if demand does not meet expectations.