Market Analysis Summary: Nasdaq 100 Faces Pullback Risk
Overview
On May 13, 2026, market analyst Kelvin Wong provided insights into the Nasdaq 100's recent performance, highlighting a potential pullback risk due to signs of exhaustion in the semiconductor sector. The Nasdaq 100 reached a record high of 29,390, driven by significant gains in semiconductor and AI-related stocks.
Key Takeaways
- The Nasdaq 100 has extended its bullish trend, reaching a new high of 29,390.
- Strong performance from semiconductor stocks like Intel, AMD, and SanDisk has been a major contributor.
- Technical indicators suggest a potential corrective pullback in the Nasdaq 100 due to exhaustion signals in semiconductor stocks.
- Bearish indicators include RSI divergence and overstretched price action above the 20-day moving average.
Market Performance
The Nasdaq 100 index surged by 3.2% from its low of 28,480 on May 8, 2026, to its all-time high on May 11, 2026. This rally has been significantly supported by the semiconductor sector, with stocks like SanDisk, Intel, and AMD showing impressive gains of 151%, 150%, and 105%, respectively, over the past three months.
Technical Analysis
The correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is notably high, with a 20-day rolling coefficient of 0.95. This indicates that movements in semiconductor stocks will likely impact the Nasdaq 100. Recent price actions have shown that the SOXX has reached an overstretched volatility condition, suggesting a potential corrective decline.
Short-Term Outlook
From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq 100 is at risk of a minor mean reversion decline below the resistance zone of 29,505/615. Key support levels are identified at 28,660, 28,460/280, and 27,850. The current price is significantly above the 20-day moving average, and bearish divergence has been observed in the RSI momentum indicator, indicating a potential short-term decline.
Conclusion
In summary, while the Nasdaq 100 has shown strong bullish momentum, the signs of exhaustion in the semiconductor sector and bearish technical indicators suggest that a pullback may be imminent. Investors should monitor these developments closely as they could impact the broader tech-heavy index in the near term.