ASX 200 Forecast: Miners Cushion Weak GDP
Published: June 04, 2026
Key Points
- The ASX 200 Index is attempting to recover, but faces a significant resistance at 8,800 in the medium term.
- Australia's GDP growth slowed to 0.3% QoQ, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, while the Ai Group Industry Index remains deeply negative at -26.5.
- Despite the soft economic data, materials and banks have shown positive performance.
Market Performance
In the latest trading session, the ASX 200 Index rose over 0.50%, buoyed by strong performances from major miners and banks. Key stocks included:
- BHP: +2.43%
- Rio Tinto: +1.62%
- ANZ: +1.94%
- CBA: +1.08%
- WBC: +0.73%
- NAB: +0.59%
Uranium and base metals also contributed positively, with notable gains from:
- NexGen Energy: +9.37%
- Alcoa: +5.97%
- Northern Star: +3.23%
- NextDC: +4.07%
Conversely, Xero saw a decline of 3.54%, and JB Hi-Fi dropped 3% as consumer discretionary stocks faced challenges due to wage costs and consumer weakness.
Economic Overview
Australia's GDP growth for June 2026 was reported at 0.3% QoQ, which is below the expected 0.5% and a decrease from the previous 0.9%. This slowdown indicates that households are under pressure and the economy lacks a robust domestic demand narrative.
Industrial Activity
The Ai Group Industry Index recorded a reading of -26.5, slightly worse than the previous -25.5, indicating that the Australian industrial sector remains in contraction. This suggests ongoing pressures on demand, orders, and overall confidence in industrial activity.
Yield Trends
The Australian 10-year yields appear to be stabilizing before a potential upward movement, likely to retest the 50-SMA. The Z-Score SMA is trending higher, and the RSI shows bullish divergence, although yields are still below the 21-EMA and 50-SMA.
ASX 200 Index Outlook
The ASX 200 Index is currently testing the 8,800 resistance level, with some signs of slowing momentum as indicated by the RSI. The index remains above the 500-SMA, 21-EMA, and 50-SMA, but the overall trend is currently bearish.
Current Trend Direction: Bearish
Bias: Negative
Support Levels: 8,255
Resistance Levels: 8,800, 9,230
Conclusion
The ASX 200 Index is expected to continue consolidating around the 500-SMA, with potential for upward momentum if it can break above the 8,800 resistance level.