Ethereum Price Forecast: Over $2.5B ETH in Liquidation Risks Emerge Amid FOMC Scare

Author: Yashu Gola

Published: March 18, 2026

Key Points

• Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $2,300 after a 3.25% pullback from its weekly high of approximately $2,390.
• Profit-taking and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the US-Iran conflict, are impacting market sentiment.
• Historically, Ethereum has declined after 7 of the last 8 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, with losses typically ranging from 13% to 26%, and in some cases, up to 42%.
• Approximately $2.52 billion in long positions are at risk of liquidation if ETH falls below $2,000, significantly outweighing the short-side risk.

Market Analysis

Ethereum's price is showing signs of exhaustion ahead of the upcoming FOMC rate decision. The recent decline is attributed to traders locking in profits and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which have contributed to a cautious market environment.

FOMC Fractal Signals Repeated Downside Risk

Ethereum has established a clear pattern of price behavior surrounding FOMC meetings. Typically, ETH stabilizes or rebounds before the decision, only to reverse sharply afterward. The historical data indicates that post-FOMC drawdowns can be significant, reflecting liquidity resets as traders adjust their positions based on interest rate expectations.

Liquidation Risks

Current data shows that the futures market for Ethereum is heavily skewed towards long positions, with a liquidation risk of over $2.5 billion if the price drops below $2,000. In contrast, the potential for short liquidations is much lower, indicating a higher vulnerability for ETH in the event of increased selling pressure.

Rate Decision Outlook

The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates, with attention focused on Jerome Powell's guidance and the dot plot for future rate expectations. Rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions have led traders to temper their expectations for rate cuts, reinforcing a "higher for longer" outlook that could limit Ethereum's upside potential.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Ethereum is approaching a critical resistance level around $2,100, which aligns with an ascending trendline. A successful breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, potentially leading to a target near $2,700. However, failure to maintain above $2,100 could result in a decline towards the trendline support near $2,000, jeopardizing the broader recovery.

Conclusion

As Ethereum navigates through macroeconomic pressures and technical resistance, traders should remain vigilant of the potential for significant price movements, particularly in light of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the associated liquidation risks.