ASX 200 Forecast: Miners Lift Index As PMI Rebound and Lower Yields Ease Pressure

Published: May 22, 2026

Key Highlights

• Miners, particularly BHP and Rio Tinto, significantly contributed to the ASX 200's rebound, with both stocks rising over 3%.
• The ASX 200 Index increased by more than 1.25% during the trading session, marking its best performance in six weeks.
• Despite the overall positive movement, REA Group and other housing-related stocks faced declines due to concerns over Australia's housing market.

Economic Indicators

The macroeconomic backdrop in Australia showed signs of improvement:

• The Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3 from 50.2, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector.
• The Services PMI increased to 50.7 from 47.7, suggesting a return to growth in the services sector.

These indicators suggest that domestic growth is stabilizing, which is favorable for sectors such as industrials, materials, and banking.

Market Analysis

The ASX 200's technical setup is improving but remains bearish overall. The index is currently above its Renko 50-SMA, indicating a potential double bottom formation. However, the market breadth is still weak, with only 48% of stocks above their 20-day moving average.

Yield Trends

The Australian 10-year yield has broken lower, easing pressure on the ASX 200. After failing to break through the 5.175% resistance level, yields fell below the 50-SMA, indicating a potential shift in momentum.

Support and Resistance Levels

The current trend direction for the ASX 200 is bearish, with support levels identified at 8,255 and resistance levels at 8,880 and 9,230. A double bottom pattern is emerging, but the index needs to surpass the 500-SMA for a more bullish outlook.

Conclusion

While the ASX 200 has shown some signs of recovery, particularly driven by the mining sector, the overall sentiment remains cautious. The market needs to break key resistance levels to shift the current bearish bias.