Morning Preview: July 01, 2025

Early Look

U.S. futures are experiencing a slight pullback as the S&P futures decline after a seven-day winning streak, concluding June and the second quarter on a high note. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached new all-time highs on Monday, driven by expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts and renewed enthusiasm for AI technologies. Investors are now focused on a July 9 deadline for trade negotiations with the U.S., with President Trump indicating potential flexibility regarding tariff deadlines.

Market Performance

In June, the S&P 500 rose by 4.96%, the Nasdaq by 6.57%, and the Dow by 4.31%. For the second quarter, the S&P 500 increased by 10.57%, the Nasdaq by 17.75%, and the Dow by 4.98%, marking the best quarterly performance since December 2023. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken, with the euro reaching a four-year high above 1.18, while Treasury yields have dipped below 4.2%.

Global Market Overview

Asian markets saw mixed results, with the Nikkei Index dropping 500 points, while the Shanghai Index gained slightly. European markets are also down, with the German DAX and FTSE 100 both experiencing declines. Historically, the first day of July has been a strong trading day, with the S&P 500 showing positive performance 90.5% of the time since 2004.

Market Closing Prices from Previous Day

• S&P 500 Index: +31.88 points (0.52%) to 6,204.95
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +275.50 points (0.63%) to 44,094.77
• Nasdaq Composite: +96.28 points (0.48%) to 20,369.73
• Russell 2000 Index: +2.51 points (0.12%) to 2,175.04

Economic Calendar for Today

• 7:45 AM ET: ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET: Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, June-Final
• 10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI for June
• 10:00 AM ET: JOLTs Job openings for May
• 10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending M/M for May
• 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Services for June
• 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar

Earnings reports are expected from MSM before the market opens and from GBX and STZ after the market closes.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer Sector

Li Auto Inc. reported 36,279 vehicle deliveries in June, totaling 111,074 for Q2. Nio Inc. saw a 17.5% year-over-year increase in deliveries. Tesla's shares fell due to declining sales in Sweden and Denmark, while XPENG reported a significant increase in deliveries.

Energy, Industrials, and Materials

AeroVironment announced public offerings totaling $1.35 billion. MSC Industrial reported better-than-expected earnings, while Oshkosh was upgraded by Goldman Sachs.

Financials

Circle is applying to create a national trust bank in the U.S., a significant move following its recent IPO.

Healthcare

Atai Life Sciences reported positive results in a clinical trial for treatment-resistant depression. Dexcom shares fell after proposed changes to Medicare payment policies.

Technology, Media & Telecom

BGC Group expects better-than-expected Q2 results, while Quantum Corporation filed for a late filing notification regarding its annual report.

Conclusion

As the markets transition into July, investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and sector performances, particularly in technology and consumer goods, while geopolitical factors continue to influence market sentiment.