Market Summary - July 31, 2026

Key Market Insights

The Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with Kevin Warsh maintaining a hawkish tone without indicating imminent rate hikes. The technology sector has seen improved sentiment, coinciding with the financial results from major tech companies. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a significant risk factor, despite OPEC+ efforts to stabilize commodity volumes.

Markets to Watch

• US100 (Nasdaq 100 Futures): SpaceX is set to release its financial report on August 4, which is expected to positively influence the tech sector. Other notable earnings reports include AMD, Palantir, Uber, and Cloudflare.
• USD/JPY: The currency pair experienced a decline due to recent interventions and hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan. The focus will be on US Treasury yields and upcoming labor market data.
• Brent Crude Oil: OPEC+ is working to restore oil supply amidst geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. The market is closely watching US manufacturing data and China's foreign trade figures, which could impact energy demand.

Upcoming Economic Data

This week will feature several key economic reports from the US, including:

• ISM Manufacturing Index
• JOLTS Report
• ADP Employment Report
• ISM Services Index
• Weekly Jobless Claims
• Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Report - Expected moderate employment growth and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.

Market Reactions

If the NFP data indicates a rise in unemployment alongside modest job growth, it could lead to a weaker dollar and a potential strengthening of the yen, especially if the Bank of Japan's minutes suggest a cautious approach to interest rate hikes.