US Jobs: Resilience or Slowdown?
By Martin Lam
Key Takeaways
- Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Risks: Despite a ceasefire agreement, Israel's ongoing airstrikes in southern Lebanon have raised concerns about the stability of the peace deal.
- Jobless Claims vs Resilience: US initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a four-month high, but economists suggest this is due to holiday distortions, indicating that the labor market remains resilient.
- Focus of the Day: The US is set to release its May non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, with expectations of 85,000 new jobs, a decrease from April's 115,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 0.3%. This report could significantly influence market direction amid a challenging economic backdrop.
Global Market Review (05/06/2026)
US stock indices closed mixed on Thursday. The Dow rose by 1.73%, driven by gains in the healthcare and financial sectors, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.41%. The Nasdaq, however, fell by 0.09%.
US Treasury yields declined, and the dollar retreated from a two-month high. Spot gold prices climbed by 0.95% to $4,473.89 per ounce. In energy markets, crude oil prices dropped over 3% following the announcement of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.
Key Events Today
- 17:00 EU GDP 3rd Est Q1
- 20:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for May
- 20:30 US Unemployment Rate for May
- 20:30 Canadian Unemployment Rate for May
Market Analysis (05/06/2026)
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.1644 / 1.1660 | Support: 1.1593 / 1.1576
The Euro strengthened to 1.1600 amid the ceasefire but later lost most gains. The upcoming NFP report is crucial for short-term direction.
Bias: Cautiously bearish
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.3460 / 1.3485 | Support: 1.3381 / 1.3357
The Pound saw a temporary rebound due to the ceasefire and hawkish comments from the Bank of England, but it lost gains by the close.
Bias: Cautiously bearish
USDJPY
Resistance: 160.08 / 160.41 | Support: 159.73 / 159.39
USD/JPY remained cautious and range-bound, with market intervention concerns limiting upside potential.
Bias: Hovering near highs
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 96.42 / 98.35 | Support: 90.18 / 88.23
Oil prices fell as geopolitical tensions eased, but prices remained above the 10-day moving average.
Bias: Range-bound
Spot Gold
Resistance: 4542 / 4569 | Support: 4400 / 4366
Gold prices rebounded but stalled as attention shifted to the NFP report.
Bias: Cautiously bearish
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 51703 / 51780 | Support: 51375 / 51278
The Dow surged, driven by optimism about a US-Iran peace agreement, with potential for continued upward movement if NFP data is positive.
Bias: Trading at highs
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 30625 / 30790 | Support: 30234 / 30108
The Nasdaq experienced mixed performance, with attention on the NFP data to boost sentiment.
Bias: Mildly bullish
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 67606 / 69683 | Support: 60728 / 58042
Bitcoin hit a four-month low, with downward momentum easing but remaining at significant support levels.
Bias: Consolidating at lows