Market Analysis Summary: Trump Pauses Iran Attack; Oil Slumps, Stocks Jump
Author: Martin Lam
Date: April 8, 2026
Summary
In a significant geopolitical development, mediated by Pakistan, President Trump has agreed to pause military actions against Iran for a two-week period. This decision is contingent upon Iran reopening the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Iran's foreign minister has confirmed that safe passage through the Strait will be maintained during this timeframe. Talks between the two nations are scheduled for April 10. Following the announcement of this ceasefire, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, while gold prices rebounded, and equity index futures saw an uptick.
Market Reactions
The three major U.S. stock indexes displayed mixed results on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.18%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw slight increases of 0.08% and 0.1%, respectively. The U.S. dollar remained near its highest level in nearly 11 months as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. deadline regarding Iran.
Gold prices rose by 1.19%, closing at $4,702.50 per ounce, as market focus shifted to the implications of Trump's ceasefire announcement. Spot gold surged more than 2% during the Asian trading session, while WTI crude oil prices plummeted by over 12%.
Key Economic Events
Today's primary focus is on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) interest rate decision, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged at 2.25%. However, due to rising energy prices, there is a 60% probability of a rate hike in May. Additionally, the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes is anticipated, which may provide further insights into their inflation outlook and policy stance.
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1728/1.1766 | Support: 1.1629/1.1600
The EUR/USD pair found support and rose to 1.1670 as the U.S. dollar softened. The ceasefire deal reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar, allowing the euro to recover.
Bias: Bullish near 1.1700
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3479/1.3516 | Support: 1.3357/1.3319
The GBP/USD pair also benefited from the dollar's pullback, climbing to 1.3390 as geopolitical tensions eased.
Bias: Bullish near 1.3400
USD/JPY
Resistance: 158.98/159.33 | Support: 158.29/157.95
The USD/JPY pair eased as safe-haven demand for the dollar faded, influenced by the cooling tensions in the Middle East.
Bias: Bearish below 159
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 101.95/107.91 | Support: 87.50/82.77
WTI crude oil prices dropped significantly, trading near $91.27 per barrel, following the announcement of the ceasefire.
Bias: Bearish below $98
Spot Gold
Resistance: 4939/5071 | Support: 4672/4538
Spot gold rose more than 2.5% in early trading, moving back above $4,810 as investors awaited further data.
Bias: Bullish above $4,730
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 47159/47799 | Support: 45715/45086
The Dow closed down 0.18% but futures rebounded sharply after the ceasefire announcement, indicating a shift in market sentiment.
Bias: Short-term bullish
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 24506/24898 | Support: 23630/23232
The NASDAQ 100 showed resilience, closing slightly higher and benefiting from improved risk appetite.
Bias: Short-term bullish
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 74382/76013 | Support: 70504/69204
Bitcoin rose approximately 3.4% to around $71,664, reflecting a return to high-beta assets following the ceasefire announcement.
Bias: Mild bullish bias above $70,504
Conclusion
The geopolitical landscape remains fluid, with the potential for further developments in U.S.-Iran relations impacting market dynamics. Investors are advised to stay informed and consider the implications of upcoming economic data releases.