Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Wedge Breakdown Signals Key Support Tests

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: March 5, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the recent breakdown of gold prices from a bearish rising wedge pattern, indicating potential further declines and testing of key support levels. The analysis highlights the importance of moving averages and measured-move targets in determining the future trajectory of gold prices.

Current Market Conditions

Gold has recently broken down from a bearish rising wedge, with initial support observed near the 20-day moving average. The price dropped to $4,996, which is now considered a critical structural level. The article suggests that a continuation of this downward trend is likely, with further testing of support levels expected.

Price Action Analysis

On Thursday, gold established a lower daily high at $5,195 and a lower low at $5,051, indicating a risk of falling below the 20-day moving average. The next significant support level is the rising 50-day average at $4,855, which has previously acted as a strong support during a recent decline.

Wedge Breakdown and Measured-Move Targets

The breakdown of the wedge pattern suggests that initial support may be at risk. A measured-move objective from the rising wedge indicates a potential target around $4,525. If this target is reached, it would place gold back into a long-term rising channel, maintaining the bullish structure if the upper channel line is recaptured.

Further Declines and Long-Term Support

The article also discusses the possibility of further declines, with a bearish measured move suggesting a target near $4,224, close to the center line of the rising channel. The 200-day average, currently at $3,995, may also provide a support zone near this measured move target.

Conclusion

In summary, the article presents a bearish outlook for gold prices, emphasizing the importance of key support levels and moving averages. The potential for further declines is significant, and traders should closely monitor these indicators to gauge market sentiment and price action.